An Observation on Ryan Howard's Contract

The Phillies 5 year, $125 million contract for Ryan Howard doesn't even start until after his current deal ends in 2011. In all, Howard is signed until 2017. 2017 is a long, long time away. A lot changes in 7 years of baseball. Consider the 2003 Major League leaders in RBI, along with age at the time:

1) Carlos Delgado, Blue Jays, 31 - 145
2) Preston Wilson, Rockies, 28 - 141
3) Gary Sheffield, Braves, 34 - 132
4) Jim Thome, Phillies, 32 - 131
5) Albert Pujols, Cardinals, 23 - 124
6) Richie Sexson, Brewers, 28 - 124
7) Alex Rodriguez, Rangers, 27 - 118
8) Vernon Wells, Blue Jays, 24 - 117
9) Todd Helton, Rockies, 29 - 117
10) Brett Boone, Mariners, 34 - 117

Pujols is the only person in the top 10 in 2003 RBI that was in the top 10 in 2009. He is, in fact, the only person in the top 20 in RBI in 2003 still in the top 20 in 2009. He's joined only by Derek Lee and Alex Rodriguez in the top 30 in 2003 and 2009... You get the picture.

Ryan Howard also hits home runs, you say?

Similar list, 2003 HR leaders:

1) Alex Rodriguez, Rangers, 27 - 47
2) Jim Thome, Phillies, 32 - 47
3) Barry Bonds, Giants, 38 - 45
4) Richie Sexson, Brewers, 28 - 45
5) Javy Lopez, Braves, 32 - 43
6) Albert Pujols, Cardinals, 23 - 43
7) Frank Thomas, White Sox, 35 - 42
8) Carlos Delgado, Blue Jays, 31 - 42
9) Jason Giambi, Yankees, 32 - 41
10) Sammy Sosa, Cubs, 34 - 40

Again, Pujols is the only person in the top 10 in homers in 2003 still in the top 10 in 2009. He's the only one in the top 20 in each, and he and A-Rod are the only two in the top 30 in each.

Of course there's a lot of turnover in these kinds of lists, but it's worth noting that the people who are on both were 23 and 27 years old in 2003. Howard is already 29.

I suppose the question is, is Howard at 29 more like Pujols at 23 or A-Rod at 27, or more like Richie Sexson and Preston Wilson at 28? Even if he's somewhere in between - say, a Delgado or a Derek Lee - is he really worth $25 million?