The Should-Be All-Stars

I'm currently running a small workshop on baseball statistics with a couple of local students, and today we discussed the upcoming All-Star game. As you are probably aware, Major League Baseball has put itself in a bit of a conundrum, unsure whether the All-Star game is an exhibition or a meaningful competition. "This time it counts," was a catch-phrase when the league first implemented a plan to award home-field advantage in the World Series to the league that wins the Midsummer Classic. On the other hand, fans vote, meaning often rosters are not constructed to win, but to entertain.

This season, for example, Placido Polanco is on the verge of being voted in at 3B in the National League. Why? Because he's on the hugely popular Philadelphia Phillies. He's having a passable season, to boot, with a .349 OBP and .433 SLG, but compared to Ryan Zimmerman's .384 and .517, there really shouldn't be a contest, especially considering Zimmerman is the better fielder and has almost three times as many home runs (13 to 5).

Such is the whimsy of the fans, who overwhelmingly vote in undeserving large-market players and fail to support under-sung standouts like Ben Zobrist, Josh Willingham, or Andres Torres, even when those players are better - indeed, far better - than their more famous counterparts like Ryan Braun or Jimmy Rollins. One need look no further than the American League DH voting, where a retired Ken Griffey, Jr. is in fourth place to see the absurdity of the fan vote.

Of course, none of that would matter if the game didn't count for anything, but since it does, the MLB is stuck in an unfortunate, contradictory position: the game is for the fans, but also for the players, but also for the league, but also for teams fighting for a World Series win. For a single game to be all of those things is absurd, and it's no accident that there are more "how to fix the All-Star Game" articles written this time of year than "how to fix the oil spill" articles.

Anyway, in the workshop today we figured out who we think deserves an All-Star berth, based on our reckoning of the actual performances of the players involved, though with a dash of deference to established players and with a higher weight put on hitting than defense. I've also compiled my own list, and I'll also note who the current vote leader is. Since WAR is the statistic du jour on this blog, I'll simply give that for each player, with notes when applicable.

National League - Catcher

Class Pick: Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves, 2.3 WAR
My Pick: Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves, 2.3 WAR
Voter Pick: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals, 0.8 WAR

Molina is a fine defensive catcher, but he's a butcher with the bat, with a slash line of .235/.312/.314 (that's batting average, OBP, and SLG for those that don't know). By all accounts McCann is just as good with the glove, but boasts a .259/.379/.443 line. McCann is also better than Molina in "traditional" stats like HR and RBI, so this fan selection is a staunch reminder that reputation and media hype go a long way. To the fans' collective credit, McCann is in second in the latest ballot update (with a final update coming tomorrow), and may yet overtake Molina, but even a second-place finish for Yadier is absurd.

It pains me to admit that the only other legitimate pick in the National League at catcher would be Miguel Olivo, who I continue to maintain should not be the Rockies starting catcher. He has, undoubtedly, put up a stellar first half (with a 2.5 WAR that exceeds McCann's, actually), but his secondary statistics (an absurdly high BABIP, for example) point to a huge crash in the second half. I suppose we'll see.

American League - Catcher

Class Pick: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins, 2.0 WAR
My Pick: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins, 2.0 WAR
Voter Pick: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins, 2.0 WAR

Mauer is a star, is the reigning MVP, and leads AL catchers in WAR. Even with only 3 homers so far, he's a no-brainer.

National League - First Base

Class Pick: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, 2.6 WAR
My Pick: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres, 3.3 WAR
Voter Pick: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, 2.6 WAR

Adrian Gonzalez is the best player you've never heard of, as he suffers from the misfortune of playing in Petco Park. Much as Rockies pitchers are underrated because Coors Field inflates their ERAs, Padres hitters are routinely underrated. Gonzalez is doing nothing new this season; he has been one of the very best hitters in baseball for a while now (consider his 6.6 WAR last season), but because he plays at Petco, he looks merely very good instead of great.

American League - First Base

Class Pick: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins, 4.5 WAR (!)
My Pick: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins, 4.5 WAR
Voter Pick: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins, 4.5 WAR

That Mark Teixeira and his 0.6 WAR season are within 300,000 fan votes of Morneau is ridiculous. Only Miguel Cabrera's 20 HR even deserves to be in the conversation here, and even then that's only to be summarily dismissed from the conversation. Morneau's 4.5 WAR so far is preposterously good, because it combines the best fielding at 1B in the AL so far with a .445 OBP and a .612 SLG. Morneau didn't deserve the MVP award he won a few years back, but if he keeps this up, he will deserve the one he wins this season. His only competition - at the moment anyway - comes from the next AL player we'll see.

National League - Second Base

Class Pick: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies, 3.2 WAR
My Pick: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies, 3.2 WAR
Voter Pick: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies, 3.2 WAR

Another no-doubter. Even with a sub-par (for him) .276 average, Utley is by far the best second baseman in the league. What's more, he has deserved more than one Gold Glove, even though he hasn't won one yet, and probably will again this season.

A tip of the hat to the fans who have Martin Prado and his 2.8 WAR in second place, despite being relatively unknown.

American League - Second Base

Class Pick: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees, 4.5 WAR (!)
My Pick: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees, 4.5 WAR
Voter Pick: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees, 4.5 WAR

Cano has been, hands down, the best player on the best team in baseball. He and Morneau will duke it out for the MVP, most likely, unless Mauer or Carl Crawford (about whom more later) can turn it on a little bit the rest of the way. As a second baseman, Cano is far more valuable than Morneau, of course, but Justin is perhaps more likely to keep up his torrid offensive pace.

National League - Third Base

Class Pick: David Wright, New York Mets, 3.2 WAR
My Pick: Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals, 3.1 WAR
Voter Pick: Placido Polanco, Philadelphia Phillies, 2.0 WAR

Zimmerman is not even in the top five NL third basemen in the latest voting results, which is a travesty. Not only has he matched Wright offensively (.290/.384/.517 SLG for Zimmerman to .300/.386/.542 for Wright), but he is the best fielding 3B in the Majors. Polanco (.318/.349/.433), as mentioned above, is having a fine season, but is a simply awful choice by comparison to either Zimmerman or Wright.

American League - Third Base

Class Pick: Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox, 3.5 WAR
My Pick: Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox, 3.5 WAR
Voter Pick: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays, 3.2 WAR

It's hard to go wrong here, as Beltre, Longoria, ARod, and even the Rangers' Michael Young are all deserving. Beltre gets my nod - and the class's - over Longoria for his superior defense.

National League - Shortstop

Class Pick: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, 2.6 WAR
My Pick: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, 2.6 WAR
Voter Pick: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, 2.6 WAR

Jimmy Rollins - who has played fewer than 20 games so far this season due to injury - is a close second in the fan voting.

I'm much more torn here than my students were. Troy Tulowitzki, though he will be injured for the All-Star game, has also put up 2.6 WAR so far. Add in that Hanley Ramirez was involved in something of a snafu by not hustling after a booted grounder earlier this season and it is tempting to give the edge to Tulo. I stick with Hanley only because, in the end, he's so much better a hitter than Tulowitzki that I can't really bring myself to vote for the injured leader of the Rockies, especially when Hanley needs all the help he can get to hold off Jimmy Rollins.

American League - Shortstop

Class Pick: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, 2.0 WAR
My Pick: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, 2.0 WAR
Voter Pick: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, 2.0 WAR

You were expecting Erick Aybar?

Jeter would get voted in here even if he weren't the best shortstop in the American League. He'd probably get voted in even if he were the worst. As is, however, he is the best, at least for now, so it's no contest.

National League - Outfield

Class Picks:
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers, 0.8 WAR
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers, 1.0 WAR
Josh Willingham, Washington Nationals, 2.6 WAR
My Picks:
Andres Torres, San Francisco Giants, 2.8 WAR
Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals, 3.1 WAR
Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals, 2.5 WAR
Voter Picks:
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers, 0.8 WAR
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers, 1.0 WAR
Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves, 1.8 WAR

A lot of discrepancy here, mainly thanks to defense. My class, like the voters, was willing to forgo outfield defense in favor of the stellar offensive seasons of Ethier and Braun, though we dodged the over-hyped Jason Heyward in favor of the much more deserving Willingham. Even so, the defensive combination of Willingham, Bruan, and Ethier (or substitute Heyward) is brutally bad. Ethier and Braun have been two of the worst fielders in baseball this season, and while Heyward has been passable, he has not been nearly as good offensively as you might expect at .251/.366/.455. Torres has a comparable .276/.375/.448 line with a fraction of the attention, and he plays plus defense at all three outfield positions.

I also think that Holliday and Ludwick both deserve recognition for being solid hitters and fielders, so much so that they lead the way in the NL in WAR among outfielders. What's more, an outfield with Ludwick in right, Torres in center, and Holliday in left is preferable to the horror show of Bruan in left, Ethier in right, and Willingham in center. Yikes.

American League - Outfield

Class Picks:
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers, 3.7 WAR
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays, 3.8 WAR
Ichiro, Seattle Mariners, 2.8 WAR
My Picks:
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers, 3.7 WAR
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays, 3.8 WAR
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians, 3.0 WAR
Voter Picks:
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers, 3.7 WAR
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays, 3.8 WAR
Ichiro, Seattle Mariners, 2.8 WAR

Carl Crawford is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career. He has been, as usual, one of the best fielders in all of baseball, and is a very good hitter to boot. Hamilton continues to be a wonderful success story, and is among the best hitters in the game whilst remaining a passable fielder.

The choice between Choo and Ichiro is a tough one, however, especially because a case could be made for Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Brett Gardner, and surprising Tigers rookie Brennan Boesch as well. I give the nod to Choo for his slight edge in WAR over those other guys (except Rios, who at 3.3 WAR so far this season strikes me as a fluke). Zobrist will likely make the squad for his versatility, as will Gardner thanks to Girardi being the manager.

That Choo is not even in the top 15 among AL outfielders in the voting says something about his relative star power. To me he gets the edge over Ichiro and those other guys, but it is close.

American League - Designated Hitter

Class Pick: Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers, 2.1 WAR
My Pick: Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers, 2.1 WAR
Voter Pick: Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers, 2.1 WAR

Another no-brainer. No other DH has come close to matching Guerrero's production this season. It also makes for a great story to have Guerrero DH back in Anaheim for the All-Star Game after being ditched by the Angels this offseason for the vastly inferior Hideki Matsui.

There you have it. On the whole, the fans aren't doing an awful job this season, and there's still time for Polanco and Molina to slide out of their starting spots at third base and catcher in the NL.

The two most common debates in the process of trying to select who really deserves to be in the game were brand-name versus performance and offense versus defense. While big names are often big simply because of exposure, it is also the case that an anomalous first half - like Miguel Olivo's - should be taken with a grain of salt,whereas players performing a little below expectations like Chase Utley are as likely to improve in the second half as the Olivo's of the world are to regress.

As far as offense and defense goes, there's no question that fans tilt heavily towards favoring offense in the All-Star Game, but that only returns us to the question we started with: what is this game really for? If you're really trying to win, why wouldn't you send out your best team, rather than just your best hitters? Only Bud Selig knows, I guess.