A popular mini-project that baseball fans like to play around with is building fictional rosters of the best players in team history, or the best players in the league today, or the best players all-time. The thing is, these lists are usually focused upon just that: the best. What if we looked at the question from the other side? Who were the worst players in a team's history? How bad would an all-time worst Rockies (since, you know, we're all Rockies fans in Nicht Diese Tone land) roster be?
I went through baseball-reference.com's Rockies pages to dig up the worst single-season performances in Rockies history, by position. For simplicity's sake I used WAR as my metric of choice, but in a few cases of ties I went with a combination of other statistics and personal opinion. The roster, along with comments, is as follows:
Catcher - Joe Girardi, 1995, -0.6 WAR
Other Stats: .262/.308/.359, 58 OPS+, 76 Ks to 29 BBs.
Girardi was never a great player, and this was one of his worst seasons. To his credit, the Rockies did make the playoffs in '95, but not so much due to Joe's contributions. His .308 OBP was especially uninspiring, and while he did manage to hit 8 homers, that "power" was almost certainly the result of the inaugural season at Coors Field (6 of the 8 came at home). Indeed, Girardi was a test-case for Coors Field, hitting .291 at Coors and .228 on the road. Remarkably, Girardi - who was 30 years old in '95 - went on to have a number of decent, if unspectacular seasons, with the Yankees and Cubs in the late '90s.
First Base - Todd Helton, 2010, 0.4 WAR
Other Stats: .256/.362/.367, 87 OPS+, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 118 G, 90 Ks to 67 BBs.
Let's get this one over with... Helton is, as you know, probably the best player in Rockies history. Well, that's not totally clear, because there's a good case to be made for Larry Walker. But Helton has spent his entire career in purple pinstripes, and figures to retire with Colorado in the next few seasons. Indeed, it was practically inevitable that he would hold this "worst ever season by a Rockies first baseman" spot if only because the Rockies have only had two starting first basemen in their entire history. Think about that for a minute. The Rockies have been around since 1993, and the only contenders for this spot are Helton and Andres Galarraga. The Big Cat actually did have a season of 0.2 WAR in 1994, but both he and Helton's contributions were entirely from defense, and Andres still slugged over .500 in the strike-shortened '94 campaign (it's just that the park adjustment is so big that his offense looks bad).
Anyway, it's about time Helton start moving towards retirement. 2010 was the first season in Helton's career in which he struck out more than he walked (first since his call-up in '97, anyway, when he struck out 11 times and walked 8 in 35 games), and his 8 home runs is, frankly, sad for a first baseman playing in Colorado.
Second Base - Mike Lansing, 1998, -0.2 WAR
Other Stats: .276/.325/.411, 78 OPS+, 18 GDP, 12 HR (after hitting 20 the year before in Montreal)
Lansing is the rare player who actually got worse after coming to Coors Field. In 1997, playing for the Expos, he hit .281/.338/.472, mashed 20 homers, and accumulated 2.5 WAR. Not a bad season. Hardly what you build a roster around, but exactly the kind of player you want to have to fill out a team. Lansing fell off the proverbial cliff in '98, though, and while he was still a solid defender, his inability to hit made him worse than replacement level for a team in dire need of an identity up the middle and at the top of the lineup.
Third Base - Ian Stewart, 2009, 0.2 WAR
Other Stats: .228/.322/.464, 95 OPS+, -0.8 defensive WAR
The Rockies have never been a great team at third base, but have usually been solid. Charlie Hayes, Jeff Cirillo, Garrett Atkins. No one's idea of world-beaters, but good enough to play on a contender. Stewart, of course, was supposed to be the guy who went out and beat worlds. A top draft pick, a highly touted prospect (so good that the Rockies didn't pick Evan Longoria when they had the chance), and now a frequent "potential breakout" player every season, Stewart just hasn't put it together, and time is running out.
One of Stewie's biggest problems (besides his work ethic, which many experts have called into question) is his reliance on the long ball. Stewart is very much a "three true outcomes" player (meaning a large percentage of his at bats end in either walks, homers, or strikeouts) who works the count and waits for his pitch. The problem is, he's often too patient, taking drive-able pitches, and thus doesn't draw nearly enough walks.
That said, in 2009 Stewart's value was hindered significantly because the Rockies trotted him out to second base in 21 games and the outfield for 9, enough to ruin his fielding WAR for the whole season. Stewie is actually a decent, if unspectacular, fielder at third - certainly better than his predecessor, Atkins. What's more, while Stewart ultimately had an unimpressive 2009, Atkins gets honorable mention (and a bench spot) for being even worse than Stewart in this playoff year. He doesn't edge out Ian for the starting spot only because the Rockies benched him midway through the season, and he didn't really come close to the theoretical 500 PA requirement I made to be a starter on this team.
Short Stop - Neifi Perez, 1998, -1.2 WAR
Other Stats: 162 G, 712 PA, .274/.313/.382, 68 OPS+, -0.9 defensive WAR, 22 Sac Bunts
Better known to Cubs fans as "Ne!f!," Perez was, for a time, possibly the worst player in baseball. It's truly remarkable that he lasted in the majors from 1996 to 2007, posting a career WAR of exactly 0.1. He was, in short, replacement level for his career, just as good or bad as any number of minor leaguers. What makes his longevity even more surprising - or maybe explains it - is his dubious distinction of being one of the few players to face three separate suspensions for testing positive for amphetamines. Yeah, Neifi is just that kind of player.
Anyway, Perez's 1998 was one of his worst seasons, and yet he played every single game, led the team in plate appearances, and often hit near the top of the lineup (and was asked to give up outs by sacrifice bunting a lot). What's more, in addition to spotty-at-best offensive ability, WAR believes that Perez was a vastly overrated defender. His 1998 numbers bear that out. Even using traditional metrics, its hard to see him as a great shortstop: he committed 20 errors for a fielding percentage of .975. Not terrible, but far from what you expect out of a guy with a .313 OBP playing at Coors Field.
Left Field - Dante Bichette, 1999, -2.8 WAR
Other Stats: .298/.354/.541, 102 OPS+, 6 SB and 6 CS, 34 HR, 133 RBI
By WAR, this was the worst season of any player in Rockies history. Not even Mike Hampton's 2002 (we'll get there) could touch Bichette in '99. At 35 Dante was done - certainly done in the field - his legs gone and his bat slipping. Still, Dante was a decent hitter late in his career (his 102 OPS+ means he was just above league average), and by traditional numbers like HR and RBI he still looked pretty good. The biggest issue here was defense. 13 errors in left field is no one's idea of acceptable, leading to an abysmal .952 fielding percentage. Add to that an utter lack of range (his Range Factor of 1.78 was well below the league average of 1.98) and you've got a recipe for disaster. Obviously Bichette can still be the cleanup hitter for this all-time worst Rockies team, but he's going to give up just as much as he provides on offense by being a butcher in the field.
Center Field - Cory Sullivan, 2005, -1.1 WAR
Other Stats: .294/.343/.386, 83 OPS+, 83 Ks to 28 BBs, 23 EBH (meaning 88 singles), 64 R
Ugh. In a long line of no-hit, kind-of-fast, ok defensive center fielders,* Sullivan has the dubious distinction of being the worst. And that's saying something; not everyone can be worse than Curtis Goodwin. Sullivan, however, was remarkable because unlike the other "kind-of-fast" players, he wasn't really fast at all. For his career - which is now almost 500 games long - he has only 32 stolen bases, and he has been caught 10 times. Not exactly a speed demon (Sullivan's replacement Willy Taveras once stole 68 in a single season).
*To wit: Juan Pierre, Curtis Goodwin, Tom Goodwin, Darryl Hamilton, Willy Taveras, and now Dexter Fowler.** The Rockies LOVE this type of player, for some reason.
**No, Dexter Fowler can't hit. He can't. This is an argument you won't win. In over 1000 PAs in his career, Fowler's slash line is .259/.351/.401. At Coors Field half the time (his road slashes: .220/.308/.334; translation: yikes!). That's not cutting it. Look, I get that he has an awesome name, and that he's super fast, and he's probably the coolest player on the Rockies (except maybe Ubaldo), but that doesn't change the fact that he's basically another iteration*** of the Rockies center-field prototype.
***OK, I'll concede that he has a chance to be better because he's 24. These things aren't predictive, but his top comp at age 24, according to baseball reference, is Lou Brock. Then again, some of his other top comps include Felix Pie and Jermaine Allensworth. So, yeah. There's that.
I bring up the speed issue because that's really Sullivan's biggest problem. He fits the mold of a certain type of player, but doesn't actually do the things those players do. So, for example, he hits a lot of singles, but he doesn't steal bases or stretch extra base hits enough to really make up for his lack of power. He doesn't score many runs, in part because he often hits at the bottom of the lineup, but also because he can only ever get himself to first base. He also strikes out a ton, and rarely walks. His biggest strength, in many ways, is his skill as a bunter. Plus, he's an overrated defensive player (career -1.8 WAR in the outfield). Sullivan, for his career, is below replacement level (-1.2 WAR total). How do players like him stick in the Majors? We'll never know.
Right Field - Brad Hawpe, 2008, -1.7 WAR
Other Stats: .283/.381/.498, 121 OPS+, 134 Ks to 76 BB, -4.1 defensive WAR
Dante and Brad are on this list for the exact same reason. Only, Dante was, early in his career, a passable defensive outfielder. This was never true of Hawpe, who has always been a first baseman playing right field. 2008 was his worst defensive season (at a stunning -4.1 WAR, or over 40 runs!) by far, and his defense alone earned him his spot among the worst Rockies of all time.
Let's not let Hawpe off the hook offensively, however. In 2007 Brad was a monster at the bat, setting career highs in home runs, RBI, runs scored, BB, OBP, SLG, and OPS+. In 2008 he regressed hard, his offensive WAR dropping from 3.2 to 2.4. That's not a ton, but it's still nearly a full win. Throw in a truly horrid defensive season, and you have a recipe for disaster. Also, I still blame Hawpe for blocking Seth Smith - an infinitely more talented player - throughout his early career, and starting in 2008. Hawpe's illusory value as a hitter is at least partially responsible for stunting Smith's development to the point that he may never realize his potential. That and Jim Tracy being a terrible* manager.
*By all accounts Tracy is great in the clubhouse, well-liked, and good at getting the best effort out of his guys, for what that's worth. But tactically... Ew. And he does seem to have an irrational dislike of certain players (Chris Ianetta, Seth Smith) and an irrational love for others (Spilly, Jason Giambi). Plus, he's going to pitch Ubaldo Jimenez's arm off within the next two seasons. Mark my words, Ubaldo will be done as an effective pitcher by 2013. And that really upsets me.
Given Hawpe's age in 2007 (28 years old), you might think the Rockies could have seen some drop-off coming. Traditionally players peak around 27 or 28, and even younger defensively. But the Rockies held onto Hawpe, who promptly fell off of a cliff in 2010. Add him with Garrett Atkins to the "players the Rockies maybe should have gotten rid of sooner" trio. The final member of the trio?
Bench, Outfield - Ryan Spilborghs, 2009, -0.7 WAR
Other Stats: 393 PA, .241/.310/.395, 1 amazing walkoff grandslam, 77 OPS+
OK, yes, Ryan Spilborghs hit a walkoff grand slam against the Giants in a key moment in the playoff race in an extra inning game that - to top it off - I attended (which is remarkable because I don't live in Colorado anymore, and didn't at the time; that was I think the only home game I made it to in 2009). So that goes in his favor. On the other hand, he was a miserable defender, and put up an OBP of .310. .310! As a Rockie!
Spilly has been a passable fourth outfielder throughout his career, but in 2009 and 2010 (now that he's over 30) he has suddenly found himself playing 130+ games a season. Problem is, if you take away his 2.1 WAR 2007 (in his age 27 season, also known as his prime), he's a career below replacement level player. He also has, as any Rockies fan with a sense of aesthetics can tell you, below replacement level facial hair.
Bench, Outfield - Darryl Hamilton, 1999, -1.0 WAR
Other Stats: .303/.374/.389, 76 OPS+, -0.8 defensive WAR, 4 SB and 5 CS, 91 G, traded mid season
Look who it is! Another no-hit, kind-of-fast, ok-at-defense center fielder! Hamilton was perhaps the worst of the bunch, lasting only one season (that his, half of '98 and half of '99) before getting traded. The best part? The Rockies got Hamilton for... Wait for it... Wait for it... Ellis Burks! As in, the best center fielder in Rockies history (at least before Cargo, who will likely settle in RF anyway).
Now Burks was 32 at the time, but he went on to have productive seasons in 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002. And, what's more, Hamilton was also 32, so it's not like the Rockies were getting younger. Hamilton, meanwhile, was flipped in '99 for Rigo Beltran (who pitched 12 innings for the Rockies and gave up 15 runs) and Brian McRae (another no-hit, kind-of-fast center fielder who played for the team for about a week). So, yeah, Darryl Hamilton was a go-between in the classic "trade Ellis Burks for nothing" move.
Anyway, Hamilton was Cory Sullivan before Cory Sullivan was Cory Sullivan. At least, to his credit, he did have a few good seasons early in his career. As a Rockie, however, he was less that replacement level, and he especially stands out because the Rockies gave up one of their best players for him.
Bench, Infield - Walt Weiss, 1994, -0.7 WAR
Other Stats: .251/.336/.303. Wait, look at that again. A .303 SLG. In Colorado. That's all you need to know.
Walt Weiss once hit a ball out of the infield in the air, but the wind was blowing out at 30 MPH that day.
Weiss owns the dubious distinction of "leading" the NL with his bafflingly low .303 SLG in 1994. That Weiss couldn't hit for power, at least, was made up for by his inability to hit for average, his mediocre defense, and his complete lack of speed. He did, at least, have a pretty good eye, and rarely struck out. So there's that. But everything else about him - throughout his career - screamed "bench player." And yet, he was a starter for no less than nine teams, once made the All-Star game, and won the Rookie of the Year in 1988. Weiss did have good seasons - and even played decently well for the Rockies from 1995-1997, but '94 was one of his worst seasons.
Bench, Infield - Garrett Atkins, 2009, -0.2 WAR
Other Stats: .226/.308/.342, 64 OPS+, 9 HR in 399 PA, $7.0 Million salary.
Ironically, Garrett's worst season was also his highest-paid one. Despite only really playing half a full-load - thanks to a mid-season benching - Atkins accumulated -0.7 WAR offensively and was, in fact, one of the inspirations for this series. In all, I couldn't elevate him over Stewart because he didn't play enough, but his 2009 remains one of the worst performances in Rockies history from a player who everyone expected much better from. Atkins was only 29 in 2009, and was coming off of a challenging 2008. But in '08 he still hit 21 homers and posted an SLG of .452, ending up with a 1.0 WAR. His complete and total collapse was surprising to say the least. Hell, it's worth taking a look at his career arc, by WAR:
2003 and 2004: -0.7 WAR (September callups)
2005: 1.5 WAR
2006: 6.4 WAR
2007: 2.9 WAR
2008: 1.0 WAR
2009: -0.2 WAR
2010: -1.0 WAR (with Baltimore)
Atkins went from MVP votes in 2006 to not-good-enough-to-start-for-the-Orioles in 2010. Wow.
Bench, Catcher - Kirt Manwaring, 1997, -2.1 WAR
Other Stats: .226/.291/.276!!!!!!! 375 PA, 1 HR, 10 GDP, 38 OPS+, -0.2 defensive WAR
Actually, those stats don't even capture the worst part of Kirt Manwaring's 1997. Let me run another set of numbers by you, so you can compare them with Manwaring's.
.297/.386/.535, 120 OPS+, 17 HR in 298 PA, +0.2 defensive WAR, 1.8 total WAR.
That was Manwaring's "backup," Jeff Reed. Reed had the single best season of his career in 1997, outperforming Manwaring in every conceivable way. And yet the two split time close to evenly all season. Indeed, Manwaring had 77 more plate appearances than Reed, despite an OBP and SLG below .300!
To top it off, the Rockies actually contended in 1997, finishing 83-79, only 7 games back of the Giants. Larry Walker won the MVP with his best season, and the team was really only a couple pieces and parts away from a playoff appearance. One of those pieces was Jeff Reed, who languished on the bench while Kirt Manwaring put up what has to be the single worst offensive season in Rockies history.
I know what you're thinking: if Manwaring was that bad overall, what did his splits look like? I'm glad you asked. Away from Coors, Kirt's line was a shocking .198/.279/.222. That, my friends, is pitcher territory. In theory, Manwaring was a terrific defensive catcher, and while WAR doesn't like him in 1997, evaluating catcher defense is notoriously impossible. Even if, however, we give Manwaring the benefit of the doubt... Even if we throw a full win at him on defense, he'd still have one of the worst seasons in Rockies history.
The only thing keeping Manwaring out of the "starting lineup" for this team is his lack of playing time. If you are so inclined, though, you can slot him in instead of Girardi.
That wraps up our look at the worst position players in Rockies history. Next up, the pitching staff. You'll never guess who the "ace" is. (Hint: he's a better hitter than Kirt Manwaring).
Showing posts with label Rockies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rockies. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Sunday, September 26, 2010
More Humidor!
My last post ended up being oddly prophetic, as Tim Lincecum 'caught' the evil Rockies cheating just this last home series. Apparently he - or the Rockies - didn't read the post, which concluded that cheating by mixing in non-humidor balls would be, basically, a colossal waste of the Rockies' time and energy. Anyway, if the Rockies were cheating, it didn't do a lot of good, as the team lost 2 of 3 and are now all-but-eliminated from the NL West race. Maybe next year they'll start cheating earlier in the season, instead of just in September.
In all seriousness, I want to further explore this humidor-cheating theme. The charge against my favorite team is, frankly, extremely severe, and if there is any warrant for it, I'd like to know. If, on the other hand, this is a witch-hunt that has more to do with irrational fears and the human propensity for finding patterns where there aren't any, well, I'd like to know that too.
Whereas last time we looked at theory - and theory flatly rejected the notion that the Rockies would gain from cheating by mixing non-humidor balls in with humidor balls - today we're going to look at data. Now, because the theory says that the Rockies would get little to no benefit from cheating as described, what we have to look at instead is whether or not the Rockies have been unduly lucky. Do they, in short, win more late comebacks than other teams?
Lets start with the most basic stats - and this includes both home and road games. The Rockies have come back to win 29 games this season. They have, on the other hand, blown 39 leads. They have won 10 walk-off games, and have watched the other team walk off 9 times.* Neither of those numbers looks particularly suspicious - indeed, it's the 39 (!) blown leads that are surprisingly high, apparently the Rockies are forgetting to take the non-humidor balls out when they go back to the mound - but let's dig deeper anyway.
* For comparison's sake, let's also look at the San Francisco Giants, the Rockies division rival who seems most convinced that the Rockies cheat with the humidor. The Giants have won 35 games by comeback, and have lost 22 games in which they had a lead. They have 6 walk-off wins and 5 walk-off losses.
Another informative statistic here is the 2010 Rockies record when they are behind at the start of the Xth inning. Consider:
Behind to start the 2nd: 10-19, .345
3rd: 10-29, .256
4th: 11-39, .220
5th: 11-43, .204
6th: 12-48, .200
7th: 15-51, .227
8th: 10-54, .156
9th: 3-56, .051
The same table for the 2010 Giants.
2nd: 11-21, .344
3rd: 14-28, .333
4th: 14-37, .275
5th: 15-47, .242
6th: 12-55, .179
7th: 13-55, .191
8th: 8-57, .123
9th: 6-61, .090
This table in isolation, and even with a Giants version for comparison, isn't all that meaningful, so let's look at the MLB league-wide numbers as well.
2nd: 330-783, .296
3rd: 408-1115, .268
4th: 413-1325, .238
5th: 367-1518, .195
6th: 317-1640, .162
7th: 263-1757, .130
8th: 170-1892, .082
9th: 96-1999, .046
To summarize, the Giants have been better than the Rockies at coming back starting behind in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 9th innings. The Rockies have been better coming from behind in the 2nd, 6th, 7th, and 8th. Both teams have generally out-performed the rest of the league, which at least in part owes to the fact that both teams are above-average teams. The Yankees, for example, are basically as good or better than both the Rockies and Giants coming from behind in every inning. The Pirates are worse. Makes sense.
I want to call out some particular numbers from the last chart. The Rockies are 3-56 when trailing going into the 9th inning. Three wins, 56 losses. Sure, a lot of that has been on the road, but that 3-56 is way worse than the Giants 6-61, for example. This more or less reinforces what we looked at last post: changing out humidor balls for non-humidor balls in the bottom of the ninth ain't gonna win many games.
In case you're not convinced, here are some numbers from previous seasons. In 2009 the Rockies went 2-63 (for an awesome .031 winning percentage) in games they trailed going into the ninth inning, and 4-58 in games they trailed going into the 8th. In 2008 those numbers were 3-79 and 8-74 respectively. Even in the magical 2007 the Rockies went 6-62 in games they trailed going into the 9th, almost identical to this year's Giants.
I don't want to spend forever parsing these numbers, because we'll just get the same thing over and over. If baseball-reference made it easier, I'd pull these apart and separate home and road, but what we'd find is that the Rockies come from behind and blow leads more often at home, simply because Coors Field is such a good hitters park. Remember that the Rockies have blown 39 leads this year? That's not because of a bad bullpen, indeed, far from it. The Colorado bullpen has been worth, according to fangraphs, 50 runs above replacement this year (or 5 wins), good for 5th in all of Major League Baseball. I think that 39 blown leads has a lot to do with where the Rockies play, humidor balls or no.
"OK Mr. Smarty-pants," you're probably saying, "You've given me all kinds of mediocre data that doesn't show that the Rockies aren't cheating, and you've yet to supply an alternative hypothesis." On the first point, you're right. I can't prove the Rockies aren't cheating because, as my last post said, there's no real reason to believe that the kind of cheating in question would actually benefit the team. Instead, I'm trying to show, in this post, that there's not really a compelling reason to even suspect that the Rockies are cheating in the first place. They don't win an inordinate number of comeback victories and they don't score an inordinate number of late runs (once you account for Coors Field, that is; I didn't show this data, but I did look, and if you ask nicely and really care, I will). In short, they're not better than anyone else at winning games that they don't lead.
Now, as to your second point, I do have a hypothesis for why the Rockies have such extreme home/road splits. I don't think the humidor has anything to do with it, rather, I think there are a couple things at work. One is familiarity. Every team in the Majors plays better at home than on the road, for any number of reasons that no one is quite sure about. Sleeping in your own bed, a batter's eye you're used to, a mound that feels more comfortable... Whatever. It just happens. So it's no surprise that Rockies pitchers do better than those from other teams at Coors, and likewise it's no surprise that Rockies hitters benefit more from Coors than visiting hitters. They know the park better, they're used to the way the ball breaks (or doesn't) out of the pitcher's hand, and they got a better night's sleep.
Beyond even that, though, I think the Rockies front office has figured out what kind of players play best at Coors Field. Especially on the pitching end, the Rockies have a particular skill set they seem to target, and they seek a lot of castaways from other teams (Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Hammel, Huston Street, Manny Delcarmen, etc) and try to turn them into Coors Field specialists. What is that skill set? Hard to say, but I can point you to some numbers that I find interesting.
There are a lot of numbers we can look at, here, but I think the most informative ones are strikeouts and walks. As two of the "three true outcomes," strikeouts and walks are the numbers that should be least susceptible to the altitude and cavernous alleys of Coors Field. That's not to say Coors should have no effect on strikeouts and walks, but rather that the effect shouldn't be as big as it is on batting average or home runs.
So what do we see? Rockies hitters have, as of today, 3016 Plate Appearances at Coors and 2959 on the road. In those, Rockies hitters have struck out 555 times at home and 655 on the road. In rates, the Rockies lineup strikes out 18.4% of the time at home, and 22.1% of the time on the road. That's a pretty substantial difference.
What about walks? The Rockies have drawn 288 walks at home and 274 on the road. In rates, again, that's 9.5% at home and 9.3% on the road. This is not, it seems to me, a substantial difference. The strikeouts are telling, however, especially if you consider this amazing piece from Athletics Nation about Carlos Gonzalez. It seems to me that the Rockies are probably taking more or less the same approach on the road as they do at home, but they're getting fooled by a lot more pitches - and especially fastballs, if you read the Cargo article - away from Coors.
More interesting, however, is the Rockies pitching staff. At Coors, Rockies pitchers have faced 2988 hitters, while facing 2847 on the road. At Coors, Rockies pitchers have struck out 596 hitters, while they've k-ed 577 on the road. That's 19.9% of plate appearances turning into strikeouts at home, and 20.3% out on the road. Not a substantial difference, which might owe to the kinds of pitches that Rockies pitchers throw. Namely, they rely on the kinds of pitches that are least effected by the altitude and dry air at Coors.
Here's the really interesting thing, though. Rockies pitchers have walked 217, or 7.3% of hitters at home, while walking 279, or 9.8% of hitters on the road. That is definitely a significant difference, and while I think it's impossible - or at least beyond the scope of this post - to figure out why exactly that's happening, I strongly suspect it has something to do with the way that balls break differently when the Rockies aren't at altitude. If, as the Cargo piece suggests, it's fastballs that are most effected, it stands to reason that more of those 3-2 and 3-1 (fastball) counts are turning into walks on the road than at home.
That's just speculation, but the point is not to prove anything, as I've said. The point is to show that there's a perfectly reasonable - and much less conspiratorial - explanation for the Rockies huge home-road splits than "LOLCOORZ" and "OMGHUMIDORZ." Given that the Rockies have been merely average - if not worse - at coming from behind in the last few years, and given that cheating with humidor balls is theoretically close to useless, and given that the Rockies front office is probably trying to build a team that capitalizes on the advantages of Coors Field... Given all of those things, it takes a particularly hysterical and extremely cynical kind of person to believe that the Rockies are getting away with some awful sin against the sanctity of baseball.*
*O.K. That's the end of the post unless you're a Rockies fan. If you are, then feel free to read on to the part where I shed any semblance of objectivity and rant for a few sentences. Enjoy.
So, yes, Tim Lincecum, you and your namby-pamby cry-baby Giants (and your awful, bourgeois Silicon Valley fans, and your too-good-for-everyone-else ballpark*) have officially made it to the top of my baseball hate list. Higher than the Dodgers, higher than the Yankees. Even higher than the Red Sox. Congratulations.
* The cheapest seat at AT&T is $16! And what kind of baseball stadium sells sushi and has wireless Internet access? And I thought baseball was supposed to be for everyone. Give me a $4 Rockpile seat any day.
In all seriousness, I want to further explore this humidor-cheating theme. The charge against my favorite team is, frankly, extremely severe, and if there is any warrant for it, I'd like to know. If, on the other hand, this is a witch-hunt that has more to do with irrational fears and the human propensity for finding patterns where there aren't any, well, I'd like to know that too.
Whereas last time we looked at theory - and theory flatly rejected the notion that the Rockies would gain from cheating by mixing non-humidor balls in with humidor balls - today we're going to look at data. Now, because the theory says that the Rockies would get little to no benefit from cheating as described, what we have to look at instead is whether or not the Rockies have been unduly lucky. Do they, in short, win more late comebacks than other teams?
Lets start with the most basic stats - and this includes both home and road games. The Rockies have come back to win 29 games this season. They have, on the other hand, blown 39 leads. They have won 10 walk-off games, and have watched the other team walk off 9 times.* Neither of those numbers looks particularly suspicious - indeed, it's the 39 (!) blown leads that are surprisingly high, apparently the Rockies are forgetting to take the non-humidor balls out when they go back to the mound - but let's dig deeper anyway.
* For comparison's sake, let's also look at the San Francisco Giants, the Rockies division rival who seems most convinced that the Rockies cheat with the humidor. The Giants have won 35 games by comeback, and have lost 22 games in which they had a lead. They have 6 walk-off wins and 5 walk-off losses.
Another informative statistic here is the 2010 Rockies record when they are behind at the start of the Xth inning. Consider:
Behind to start the 2nd: 10-19, .345
3rd: 10-29, .256
4th: 11-39, .220
5th: 11-43, .204
6th: 12-48, .200
7th: 15-51, .227
8th: 10-54, .156
9th: 3-56, .051
The same table for the 2010 Giants.
2nd: 11-21, .344
3rd: 14-28, .333
4th: 14-37, .275
5th: 15-47, .242
6th: 12-55, .179
7th: 13-55, .191
8th: 8-57, .123
9th: 6-61, .090
This table in isolation, and even with a Giants version for comparison, isn't all that meaningful, so let's look at the MLB league-wide numbers as well.
2nd: 330-783, .296
3rd: 408-1115, .268
4th: 413-1325, .238
5th: 367-1518, .195
6th: 317-1640, .162
7th: 263-1757, .130
8th: 170-1892, .082
9th: 96-1999, .046
To summarize, the Giants have been better than the Rockies at coming back starting behind in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 9th innings. The Rockies have been better coming from behind in the 2nd, 6th, 7th, and 8th. Both teams have generally out-performed the rest of the league, which at least in part owes to the fact that both teams are above-average teams. The Yankees, for example, are basically as good or better than both the Rockies and Giants coming from behind in every inning. The Pirates are worse. Makes sense.
I want to call out some particular numbers from the last chart. The Rockies are 3-56 when trailing going into the 9th inning. Three wins, 56 losses. Sure, a lot of that has been on the road, but that 3-56 is way worse than the Giants 6-61, for example. This more or less reinforces what we looked at last post: changing out humidor balls for non-humidor balls in the bottom of the ninth ain't gonna win many games.
In case you're not convinced, here are some numbers from previous seasons. In 2009 the Rockies went 2-63 (for an awesome .031 winning percentage) in games they trailed going into the ninth inning, and 4-58 in games they trailed going into the 8th. In 2008 those numbers were 3-79 and 8-74 respectively. Even in the magical 2007 the Rockies went 6-62 in games they trailed going into the 9th, almost identical to this year's Giants.
I don't want to spend forever parsing these numbers, because we'll just get the same thing over and over. If baseball-reference made it easier, I'd pull these apart and separate home and road, but what we'd find is that the Rockies come from behind and blow leads more often at home, simply because Coors Field is such a good hitters park. Remember that the Rockies have blown 39 leads this year? That's not because of a bad bullpen, indeed, far from it. The Colorado bullpen has been worth, according to fangraphs, 50 runs above replacement this year (or 5 wins), good for 5th in all of Major League Baseball. I think that 39 blown leads has a lot to do with where the Rockies play, humidor balls or no.
"OK Mr. Smarty-pants," you're probably saying, "You've given me all kinds of mediocre data that doesn't show that the Rockies aren't cheating, and you've yet to supply an alternative hypothesis." On the first point, you're right. I can't prove the Rockies aren't cheating because, as my last post said, there's no real reason to believe that the kind of cheating in question would actually benefit the team. Instead, I'm trying to show, in this post, that there's not really a compelling reason to even suspect that the Rockies are cheating in the first place. They don't win an inordinate number of comeback victories and they don't score an inordinate number of late runs (once you account for Coors Field, that is; I didn't show this data, but I did look, and if you ask nicely and really care, I will). In short, they're not better than anyone else at winning games that they don't lead.
Now, as to your second point, I do have a hypothesis for why the Rockies have such extreme home/road splits. I don't think the humidor has anything to do with it, rather, I think there are a couple things at work. One is familiarity. Every team in the Majors plays better at home than on the road, for any number of reasons that no one is quite sure about. Sleeping in your own bed, a batter's eye you're used to, a mound that feels more comfortable... Whatever. It just happens. So it's no surprise that Rockies pitchers do better than those from other teams at Coors, and likewise it's no surprise that Rockies hitters benefit more from Coors than visiting hitters. They know the park better, they're used to the way the ball breaks (or doesn't) out of the pitcher's hand, and they got a better night's sleep.
Beyond even that, though, I think the Rockies front office has figured out what kind of players play best at Coors Field. Especially on the pitching end, the Rockies have a particular skill set they seem to target, and they seek a lot of castaways from other teams (Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Hammel, Huston Street, Manny Delcarmen, etc) and try to turn them into Coors Field specialists. What is that skill set? Hard to say, but I can point you to some numbers that I find interesting.
There are a lot of numbers we can look at, here, but I think the most informative ones are strikeouts and walks. As two of the "three true outcomes," strikeouts and walks are the numbers that should be least susceptible to the altitude and cavernous alleys of Coors Field. That's not to say Coors should have no effect on strikeouts and walks, but rather that the effect shouldn't be as big as it is on batting average or home runs.
So what do we see? Rockies hitters have, as of today, 3016 Plate Appearances at Coors and 2959 on the road. In those, Rockies hitters have struck out 555 times at home and 655 on the road. In rates, the Rockies lineup strikes out 18.4% of the time at home, and 22.1% of the time on the road. That's a pretty substantial difference.
What about walks? The Rockies have drawn 288 walks at home and 274 on the road. In rates, again, that's 9.5% at home and 9.3% on the road. This is not, it seems to me, a substantial difference. The strikeouts are telling, however, especially if you consider this amazing piece from Athletics Nation about Carlos Gonzalez. It seems to me that the Rockies are probably taking more or less the same approach on the road as they do at home, but they're getting fooled by a lot more pitches - and especially fastballs, if you read the Cargo article - away from Coors.
More interesting, however, is the Rockies pitching staff. At Coors, Rockies pitchers have faced 2988 hitters, while facing 2847 on the road. At Coors, Rockies pitchers have struck out 596 hitters, while they've k-ed 577 on the road. That's 19.9% of plate appearances turning into strikeouts at home, and 20.3% out on the road. Not a substantial difference, which might owe to the kinds of pitches that Rockies pitchers throw. Namely, they rely on the kinds of pitches that are least effected by the altitude and dry air at Coors.
Here's the really interesting thing, though. Rockies pitchers have walked 217, or 7.3% of hitters at home, while walking 279, or 9.8% of hitters on the road. That is definitely a significant difference, and while I think it's impossible - or at least beyond the scope of this post - to figure out why exactly that's happening, I strongly suspect it has something to do with the way that balls break differently when the Rockies aren't at altitude. If, as the Cargo piece suggests, it's fastballs that are most effected, it stands to reason that more of those 3-2 and 3-1 (fastball) counts are turning into walks on the road than at home.
That's just speculation, but the point is not to prove anything, as I've said. The point is to show that there's a perfectly reasonable - and much less conspiratorial - explanation for the Rockies huge home-road splits than "LOLCOORZ" and "OMGHUMIDORZ." Given that the Rockies have been merely average - if not worse - at coming from behind in the last few years, and given that cheating with humidor balls is theoretically close to useless, and given that the Rockies front office is probably trying to build a team that capitalizes on the advantages of Coors Field... Given all of those things, it takes a particularly hysterical and extremely cynical kind of person to believe that the Rockies are getting away with some awful sin against the sanctity of baseball.*
*O.K. That's the end of the post unless you're a Rockies fan. If you are, then feel free to read on to the part where I shed any semblance of objectivity and rant for a few sentences. Enjoy.
So, yes, Tim Lincecum, you and your namby-pamby cry-baby Giants (and your awful, bourgeois Silicon Valley fans, and your too-good-for-everyone-else ballpark*) have officially made it to the top of my baseball hate list. Higher than the Dodgers, higher than the Yankees. Even higher than the Red Sox. Congratulations.
* The cheapest seat at AT&T is $16! And what kind of baseball stadium sells sushi and has wireless Internet access? And I thought baseball was supposed to be for everyone. Give me a $4 Rockpile seat any day.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Colorado Rockies Draft History, Part Three: 2004-2010
Tip of the hat to baseball-reference, yet again.
Part three of three! We've looked at every Rockies draft pick who has made the Majors from 1992 to 2003 so far, and today we're going to look at the Rockies most recent drafts. Of course, the most recent ones - from 2007 on - haven't really paid off, as yet. Nevertheless, we can look at the players who are on the path to the big leagues from those drafts, even if we don't know who's going to become a starter and who's going to be a career backup yet.
Onward!
2004
Round 2, Pick 50 - OF Seth Smith, 2.7 WAR
Smith has actually added another 0.6 WAR so far this season, but BR's totals only go through 2009. Even so, Smith has already shown that his tremendous athletic ability - as a former quarterback - translates well to the baseball diamond. Smith leads the Rockies in HR so far this season (as of this writing) despite only recently becoming a regular starter. Indeed, the Rockies have mysteriously resisted playing Smith regularly for the past three seasons, despite now sporting a career .364 OBP, .506 SLG and .283 AVG. Add to that 28 homers in 593 ABs and you definitely have a starting outfielder.
The knock on Smith is and has always been his struggles against left-handed pitching. As a result, fewer than 100 of Smith's career ABs have come against lefties. Much like a young Brad Hawpe, the Rockies are sheltering Smith from the challenge of hitting against southpaws. Which is fair enough, because Smith has undoubtedly struggled in his admittedly limited opportunities against left-handed pitching. Someday, however, he'll likely start to get more time against pitchers of all kinds.
Round 3, Pick 80 - RHP Steven Register, -0.3 WAR
Register made it to Colorado in 2008, a fairly quick ascent for a young player drafted in 2004, but he struggled in 10 innings, giving up 10 runs (and not due to bad luck). He has since moved on, and resides in the Blue Jays' minor league system, hoping for another crack in the Majors.
Round 4, Pick 110 - C Chris Iannetta, 4.7 WAR
I've written about Iannetta already this season, thanks to the shenanigans the front office and management have gotten entangled in with arguably the best home-grown catcher in franchise history. Chris still has only 50 PAs so far in 2010, an unthinkably low number after hitting 16 homers in only 289 ABs with a .344 OBP last year (when, again, he mysteriously split time with a catcher who is, frankly, not good enough to be in the Majors in Yorvit Torrealba). Iannetta may never really hit for that high an average, but he has tremendous plate discipline and is not some young prospect. He is a proven Major League catcher, with a career .356 OBP and a .440 SLG in over 1,000 PAs. That's not outstanding - indeed, he's about a league average hitter - but for a catcher it is more than solid.
As fantastic a draft pick as Iannetta was, his misuse since is exemplified best by the reaction around the blogosphere - and around the rest of the Majors - when Iannetta was demoted. Shock would be a good word. There was also a killer instinct displayed by intelligent clubs like the Red Sox, who immediately tried to trade for the wayward catcher. I don't think they asked about Miguel Olivo, no matter how well he's hitting at Coors Field this season.
Round 5, Pick 140 - 3B Matt Macri, -0.1 WAR
I have to admit that I have never heard of Matt Macri before. Apparently the Rockies traded him for Ramon Ortiz (one of their many soft-tossing-pitcher reclamation projects) in 2007. Macri made it to the Majors with the Twins in 2008, playing surprisingly well in 18 games. Even so, he hasn't appeared in the Majors since, and has even been Designated for Assignment and thus removed from the Minnesota 40-man roster, meaning he's unlikely to appear in the big leagues any time soon.
Round 6, Pick 170 - 1B Joe Koshansky, -0.2 WAR
Another heir-apparent to Todd Helton, Koshansky has never quite figured out how to made contact enough to stick at the big league level. Koshansky was a September call-up for the Rockies in 2007 and 2008, and while his prodigious power was on display in especially the second of those call-ups, so was his even more prodigious ability to strike out. Overall, Joe struck out 22 times in his 55 PAs in the Majors, with little indication that he'd do better with more time. Unlike Ryan Shealy, however, the Rockies were unable to get anything in return for this prospect, instead losing him to the waiver wire in 2009. He now plies his trade in the minor league system of the Milwaukee Brewers, where he's blocked by a much larger first baseman than Todd Helton in Prince Fielder.
Round 8, Pick 230 - RHP Jim Miller, 0.2 WAR
Miller was a part of the trade that brought Rodrigo Lopez to the Rockies from Baltimore in 2007, and made his 8 MLB appearances with the Orioles in 2008. He pitched well enough in just under eight innings, but has been truly awful so far this season in AAA, keeping him off of a very bad Orioles roster.
Round 12, Pick 350 - RHP David Patton, -0.5 WAR
Patton worked in 20 games for the Cubs last year, but wasn't really any good, walking 19 and striking out 23 in 27.2 innings. The Rockies gave up on Patton fairly easily, allowing him to be taken in the minor league draft after the 2008 season. And, apparently, they were right.
Round 14, Pick 410 - OF Dexter Fowler, 0.9 WAR
Dexter Fowler is still young because he was drafted out of high school. This season he is 24, meaning he still has time to develop. He needs, however, to cut down on his strikeouts, especially if he is going to wrest playing time away from Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, and the always beloved Brad Hawpe. Indeed, like Iannetta, the Rockies sent Fowler to AAA as punishment for early-season struggles, despite a fairly small sample size. In Fowler's case, however, there is no history of success to recommend against the move. His 2009 was below league average at the plate and, despite reviews to the contrary, in the field as well. Unless Fowler can cut down on his strikeouts and find a little more pop, he's going to be the most recent in a long line of speedy, light-hitting center-fielders the Rockies fall in love with, but can't justify running out there every day.
Round 19, Pick 560 - LHP Josh Newman, -0.6 WAR
Newman pitched in 14 games in 2007 and 2008 for the Rockies and Royals, and hasn't been heard from since, thanks to more walks than strikeouts and a 8.15 ERA.
2005
Round 1, Pick 7 - SS Troy Tulowitzki, 13.0 WAR
Clap-Clap
Clap-Clap-Clap
Clap-Clap-Clap-Clap
TULO!!!
That is all.
2006
Round 1, Pick 2 - RHP Greg Reynolds, -1.4 WAR
For this pick, I can't help but play the "what-if" game, again. Reynolds was regarded with skepticism at the time of his drafting, and for good reason. Consider the following picks, coming after Reynolds, at #2 overall:
3) Tampa Bay: 3B - Evan Longoria, 10.4 WAR
7) Los Angeles Dodgers: LHP - Clayton Kershaw, 4.9 WAR
10) San Francisco: RHP - Tim Lincecum, 15.0 WAR
11) Arizona: RHP - Max Scherzer, 2.3 WAR
41) New York Yankees: RHP - Joba Chamberlain, 4.3 WAR
The draft is, of course, an imperfect science, and the Rockies are not alone in busting on this draft. Overall #1 pick Luke Hochevar hasn't exactly been a world beater for the Royals, after all. But Longoria, especially, was very highly regarded, so much so that he could have been a number one pick. What's more, he was a college teammate and indeed close friend of Troy Tulowitzki. In short, he made so much sense for the Rockies, and Greg Reynolds made so little, that it's hard not to be a little frustrated by how these respective picks have turned out.
Round 18, Pick 528 - RHP Andrew Cashner, 0.1 WAR
Cashner made the Majors just this season with the Chicago Cubs. His is a veritable modern draft romance. He was picked in 2005 by the Braves in the 20th round, then the Rockies in 2006 in the 18th before being picked by the Cubs in the 29th round in 2007. Finally, the Cubs picked him again in 2008 in the 1st round. Because, you know, he got that much better in one season. Anyway, the last of those picks seems like the most accurate, given that Cashner has made the Majors already. Most 20th rounders don't make it to the Bigs period, let alone after two seasons. Regardless of Cashner's successes from here on out, he's proven a point by refusing to sign until he was picked 18th overall, and then delivering on that point by pitching his way to the Majors quickly.
2007, 2008, and 2009
Not surprisingly, no one from the 2007, 2008, or 2009 (or 2010) draft classes has made it to the Majors yet for the Rockies. Casey Weathers - the first rounder from 2007 - probably would have if not for Tommy John surgery a couple seasons ago. Other than that, however, no one has really been delayed. Rather, there are a handful of prospects on their ways, some of whom have high ceilings, indeed.
The Rockies top two prospects are 2008 first-rounder Christian Friedrich and 2009 first-rounder Tyler Matzek. Add 2010 top picks Kyle Parker - an outfielder, and Clemson's starting quarterback - and pitcher Peter Tago, and the Rockies certainly have some good potential Major Leaguers coming out of their recent drafts. But that's the definition of a high draft pick: potential. Not every first round pick turns into a Todd Helton or a Troy Tulowitzki.
Indeed, if nothing else I hope these posts have demonstrated how hard it is to tell who is going to be a good Major League player on draft day. Despite all of the hype surrounding Bryce Harper, we simply don't know if he'll turn into an All-Star or not. Likewise with Stephen Strasburg, whose impressive ML debut does not assure him a Hall of Fame berth, believe it or not.
The best cautionary draft tale I can think of comes from the 2001 draft. The Minnesota Twins were picking first overall, and they were hammered by analysts and experts who simply could not believe that they didn't pick Mark Prior. It was as if the Nationals, in 2009, refused to pick Strasburg. Prior, as you probably know, went on to have an incredible career for three seasons, before blowing out his arm. He hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2006.
The Twins, meanwhile, continue to enjoy the services of their pick that season, hometown hero and awful, awful first overall pick: Joe Mauer.
Part three of three! We've looked at every Rockies draft pick who has made the Majors from 1992 to 2003 so far, and today we're going to look at the Rockies most recent drafts. Of course, the most recent ones - from 2007 on - haven't really paid off, as yet. Nevertheless, we can look at the players who are on the path to the big leagues from those drafts, even if we don't know who's going to become a starter and who's going to be a career backup yet.
Onward!
2004
Round 2, Pick 50 - OF Seth Smith, 2.7 WAR
Smith has actually added another 0.6 WAR so far this season, but BR's totals only go through 2009. Even so, Smith has already shown that his tremendous athletic ability - as a former quarterback - translates well to the baseball diamond. Smith leads the Rockies in HR so far this season (as of this writing) despite only recently becoming a regular starter. Indeed, the Rockies have mysteriously resisted playing Smith regularly for the past three seasons, despite now sporting a career .364 OBP, .506 SLG and .283 AVG. Add to that 28 homers in 593 ABs and you definitely have a starting outfielder.
The knock on Smith is and has always been his struggles against left-handed pitching. As a result, fewer than 100 of Smith's career ABs have come against lefties. Much like a young Brad Hawpe, the Rockies are sheltering Smith from the challenge of hitting against southpaws. Which is fair enough, because Smith has undoubtedly struggled in his admittedly limited opportunities against left-handed pitching. Someday, however, he'll likely start to get more time against pitchers of all kinds.
Round 3, Pick 80 - RHP Steven Register, -0.3 WAR
Register made it to Colorado in 2008, a fairly quick ascent for a young player drafted in 2004, but he struggled in 10 innings, giving up 10 runs (and not due to bad luck). He has since moved on, and resides in the Blue Jays' minor league system, hoping for another crack in the Majors.
Round 4, Pick 110 - C Chris Iannetta, 4.7 WAR
I've written about Iannetta already this season, thanks to the shenanigans the front office and management have gotten entangled in with arguably the best home-grown catcher in franchise history. Chris still has only 50 PAs so far in 2010, an unthinkably low number after hitting 16 homers in only 289 ABs with a .344 OBP last year (when, again, he mysteriously split time with a catcher who is, frankly, not good enough to be in the Majors in Yorvit Torrealba). Iannetta may never really hit for that high an average, but he has tremendous plate discipline and is not some young prospect. He is a proven Major League catcher, with a career .356 OBP and a .440 SLG in over 1,000 PAs. That's not outstanding - indeed, he's about a league average hitter - but for a catcher it is more than solid.
As fantastic a draft pick as Iannetta was, his misuse since is exemplified best by the reaction around the blogosphere - and around the rest of the Majors - when Iannetta was demoted. Shock would be a good word. There was also a killer instinct displayed by intelligent clubs like the Red Sox, who immediately tried to trade for the wayward catcher. I don't think they asked about Miguel Olivo, no matter how well he's hitting at Coors Field this season.
Round 5, Pick 140 - 3B Matt Macri, -0.1 WAR
I have to admit that I have never heard of Matt Macri before. Apparently the Rockies traded him for Ramon Ortiz (one of their many soft-tossing-pitcher reclamation projects) in 2007. Macri made it to the Majors with the Twins in 2008, playing surprisingly well in 18 games. Even so, he hasn't appeared in the Majors since, and has even been Designated for Assignment and thus removed from the Minnesota 40-man roster, meaning he's unlikely to appear in the big leagues any time soon.
Round 6, Pick 170 - 1B Joe Koshansky, -0.2 WAR
Another heir-apparent to Todd Helton, Koshansky has never quite figured out how to made contact enough to stick at the big league level. Koshansky was a September call-up for the Rockies in 2007 and 2008, and while his prodigious power was on display in especially the second of those call-ups, so was his even more prodigious ability to strike out. Overall, Joe struck out 22 times in his 55 PAs in the Majors, with little indication that he'd do better with more time. Unlike Ryan Shealy, however, the Rockies were unable to get anything in return for this prospect, instead losing him to the waiver wire in 2009. He now plies his trade in the minor league system of the Milwaukee Brewers, where he's blocked by a much larger first baseman than Todd Helton in Prince Fielder.
Round 8, Pick 230 - RHP Jim Miller, 0.2 WAR
Miller was a part of the trade that brought Rodrigo Lopez to the Rockies from Baltimore in 2007, and made his 8 MLB appearances with the Orioles in 2008. He pitched well enough in just under eight innings, but has been truly awful so far this season in AAA, keeping him off of a very bad Orioles roster.
Round 12, Pick 350 - RHP David Patton, -0.5 WAR
Patton worked in 20 games for the Cubs last year, but wasn't really any good, walking 19 and striking out 23 in 27.2 innings. The Rockies gave up on Patton fairly easily, allowing him to be taken in the minor league draft after the 2008 season. And, apparently, they were right.
Round 14, Pick 410 - OF Dexter Fowler, 0.9 WAR
Dexter Fowler is still young because he was drafted out of high school. This season he is 24, meaning he still has time to develop. He needs, however, to cut down on his strikeouts, especially if he is going to wrest playing time away from Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, and the always beloved Brad Hawpe. Indeed, like Iannetta, the Rockies sent Fowler to AAA as punishment for early-season struggles, despite a fairly small sample size. In Fowler's case, however, there is no history of success to recommend against the move. His 2009 was below league average at the plate and, despite reviews to the contrary, in the field as well. Unless Fowler can cut down on his strikeouts and find a little more pop, he's going to be the most recent in a long line of speedy, light-hitting center-fielders the Rockies fall in love with, but can't justify running out there every day.
Round 19, Pick 560 - LHP Josh Newman, -0.6 WAR
Newman pitched in 14 games in 2007 and 2008 for the Rockies and Royals, and hasn't been heard from since, thanks to more walks than strikeouts and a 8.15 ERA.
2005
Round 1, Pick 7 - SS Troy Tulowitzki, 13.0 WAR
Clap-Clap
Clap-Clap-Clap
Clap-Clap-Clap-Clap
TULO!!!
That is all.
2006
Round 1, Pick 2 - RHP Greg Reynolds, -1.4 WAR
For this pick, I can't help but play the "what-if" game, again. Reynolds was regarded with skepticism at the time of his drafting, and for good reason. Consider the following picks, coming after Reynolds, at #2 overall:
3) Tampa Bay: 3B - Evan Longoria, 10.4 WAR
7) Los Angeles Dodgers: LHP - Clayton Kershaw, 4.9 WAR
10) San Francisco: RHP - Tim Lincecum, 15.0 WAR
11) Arizona: RHP - Max Scherzer, 2.3 WAR
41) New York Yankees: RHP - Joba Chamberlain, 4.3 WAR
The draft is, of course, an imperfect science, and the Rockies are not alone in busting on this draft. Overall #1 pick Luke Hochevar hasn't exactly been a world beater for the Royals, after all. But Longoria, especially, was very highly regarded, so much so that he could have been a number one pick. What's more, he was a college teammate and indeed close friend of Troy Tulowitzki. In short, he made so much sense for the Rockies, and Greg Reynolds made so little, that it's hard not to be a little frustrated by how these respective picks have turned out.
Round 18, Pick 528 - RHP Andrew Cashner, 0.1 WAR
Cashner made the Majors just this season with the Chicago Cubs. His is a veritable modern draft romance. He was picked in 2005 by the Braves in the 20th round, then the Rockies in 2006 in the 18th before being picked by the Cubs in the 29th round in 2007. Finally, the Cubs picked him again in 2008 in the 1st round. Because, you know, he got that much better in one season. Anyway, the last of those picks seems like the most accurate, given that Cashner has made the Majors already. Most 20th rounders don't make it to the Bigs period, let alone after two seasons. Regardless of Cashner's successes from here on out, he's proven a point by refusing to sign until he was picked 18th overall, and then delivering on that point by pitching his way to the Majors quickly.
2007, 2008, and 2009
Not surprisingly, no one from the 2007, 2008, or 2009 (or 2010) draft classes has made it to the Majors yet for the Rockies. Casey Weathers - the first rounder from 2007 - probably would have if not for Tommy John surgery a couple seasons ago. Other than that, however, no one has really been delayed. Rather, there are a handful of prospects on their ways, some of whom have high ceilings, indeed.
The Rockies top two prospects are 2008 first-rounder Christian Friedrich and 2009 first-rounder Tyler Matzek. Add 2010 top picks Kyle Parker - an outfielder, and Clemson's starting quarterback - and pitcher Peter Tago, and the Rockies certainly have some good potential Major Leaguers coming out of their recent drafts. But that's the definition of a high draft pick: potential. Not every first round pick turns into a Todd Helton or a Troy Tulowitzki.
Indeed, if nothing else I hope these posts have demonstrated how hard it is to tell who is going to be a good Major League player on draft day. Despite all of the hype surrounding Bryce Harper, we simply don't know if he'll turn into an All-Star or not. Likewise with Stephen Strasburg, whose impressive ML debut does not assure him a Hall of Fame berth, believe it or not.
The best cautionary draft tale I can think of comes from the 2001 draft. The Minnesota Twins were picking first overall, and they were hammered by analysts and experts who simply could not believe that they didn't pick Mark Prior. It was as if the Nationals, in 2009, refused to pick Strasburg. Prior, as you probably know, went on to have an incredible career for three seasons, before blowing out his arm. He hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2006.
The Twins, meanwhile, continue to enjoy the services of their pick that season, hometown hero and awful, awful first overall pick: Joe Mauer.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Colorado Rockies Draft History, Part Two: 1998-2003
Tip of the hat to baseball-reference, where all of my info for this series of posts is coming from.
Yesterday we looked at the first six drafts of the Rockies history, which, with the not-inconsequential exception of Todd Helton, did little to boost the Major League club. Part two will take us into more recent territory. The volume of Major Leaguers - and especially Major Leaguers who have made an actual impact with the Rockies - is much higher than in the first few years of Rockies drafts, before they had a chance to really build their scouting department. Add to that the struggles of the big league club, which in turn netted higher picks, and you'll see more familiar names in today's post than in yesterday's.
Without further ado, onwards to 1998.
1998
Round 1, Pick 28 - RHP Matt Roney, -0.1 WAR
An inauspicious start to the day, Roney left the club as a Rule 5 pick between the 2002 and 2003 seasons, landing with the Detroit Tigers. The following season, the Tigers were unthinkably bad, at 43-119 (and they would have lost 120, if not for a 5-1 finish*). Roney worked mostly in relief, starting 11 games and appearing in 34 others. All things considered, he did alright, producing a 5.45 ERA, but he also walked more hitters than he struck out and, not surprisingly, finished with a 1-9 record. The truly remarkable thing, however, is that Roney, in what would be his only complete season in the big leagues, was realistically the Tigers' fourth best pitcher, behind "ace" Nate Cornejo and fellow relievers Chris Spurling and Jamie Walker. That you have probably never heard of any of those pitchers says a lot about why the Tigers lost 119 games in 2003.
* As for how bad they were, consider this: that 5-1 finish accounted for 12% of their wins for the entire year. For comparison's sake, consider that those six games accounted for about 4% of the schedule.
While we're at it, it's worth mentioning that Roney was joined by Adam Bernero and Ben Petrick - who you'll remember from yesterday's post - on one of baseball history's worst teams. The Rockies were producing Major Leaguers of a kind, anyway, but at least they were someone else's problem.
Round 1 (supplemental), Pick 36 - OF Choo Freeman, -1.5 WAR
Choo was something of a fan favorite in his three years with the Major League club. From 2004 to 2006 he was given a chance to break into the regular lineup, but never really managed to impress. His lack of power meant that he needed to hit for a high average, show good plate discipline, and employ his excellent speed to his advantage. He struggled, however, to do any of those things, stealing only six bases in thirteen attempts, and punching up a putrid .296 OBP in his 318 Major League PAs. Choo was one in a series of light-hitting center fielders that manned the cavernous alleys of Coors Field, joining the likes of Curtis Goodwin, Darryl Hamilton, and going further back, Alex Cole. One might also throw Willy Taveras, Cory Sullivan, and Dexter Fowler into that mix. Obviously the Rockies have believed that they need speed in the outfield - even at the expense of power - to be successful at Coors. Current center fielder Carlos Gonzalez, fortunately, provides both.
Round 2, Pick 60 - RHP Jermaine Van Buren, -0.6 WAR
Van Buren's 16 games came as a Cub and a Red Sock, after being released by the Rockies in 2003. He posted a 9.00 ERA in 19 innings.
Round 2, Pick 71 - OF Jody Gerut, 4.2 WAR
The second of four eventual Major League outfielders the Rockies picked in this draft, Gerut was a part of the trade that sent catcher Josh Bard to Cleveland for another speedy, light-hitting outfielder named Jacob Cruz. Since then, Gerut has become something of a journeyman, never living up to the potential displayed in his rookie season in 2003 when he hit .279 with 22 and a respectable .336 OBP, thanks largely to an ACL tear he suffered late in 2004. Gerut was out of the Majors by the end of 2005, but fought his way back and was a regular for the Padres in 2008. He is currently playing for - and struggling with - the Milwaukee Brewers, having been traded by the Padres for Tony Gwynn Jr last season.
Round 4, Pick 120 - RHP Luke Hudson, 1.4 WAR
Hudson enjoyed two full seasons and parts of a couple more at the big league level, pitching for the Reds and the Royals with limited success. A career 5.11 ERA in 243 innings is nothing spectacular, and probably had something to do with Hudson's low strikeout, high walk, and fairly high home run totals. A dangerous combination.
Round 5, Pick 150 - 1B Ryan Shealy, 0.6 WAR
Rockies fans probably remember Shealy as the one-time heir apparent to Todd Helton who never really got a chance to play. Eventually the club moved Ryan to Kansas City in the deal that brought Jeremy Affeldt to the roster. Given regular playing time, Shealy proved that his batting eye was, more or less, for real, but his vaunted power has never lived up to expectations, and he hasn't appeared in a Major League game since 2008. Deemed not good enough for the Royals, who start Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Guillen every day, there's little chance Shealy will play anywhere else.
Round 7, Pick 210 - 3B Matt Holliday, 21.9 WAR
You may be surprised to learn that Holliday, picked out of high school, went in the seventh round. There may be no better anecdotal evidence - at least in Rockies history - as to what a crap-shoot the draft is than Holliday's selection. Based on this draft, one would be tempted to say that the Rockies (and all of baseball) in 1998 thought that Choo Freeman was a better played than Matt Holliday. Yeah.
Anyway, you know the story from there. Holliday moved to the outfield from third base, debuted in Colorado in 2004, and promptly grew into some power to accompany his .300+ batting averages. In 2007 he hit a league-leading .340 and cracked 36 home runs en route to a second-place finish in the MVP voting and a World Series appearance for the Rockies. Showing tremendous shrewdness, the Rockies dealt Holliday after a sub-par (for him) 2008 season, getting in return Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street from the Oakland Athletics.
Last offseason Holliday signed a massive contract with the Cardinals that will keep him there past, frankly, the time when he will likely be a useful player for them. The Rockies, meanwhile, have both a decent if oft-injured closer and a budding young star in the outfield instead. Despite much hand-wringing at the time, Holliday not only gave the Rockies his best seasons, his departure brought in one of the franchise's current best players.
Round 13, Pick 390 - OF Juan Pierre, 11.9 WAR
The fourth of four Major League outfielders the Rockies picked in 1998 (and another light-hitting speedster), Pierre has had a solid career despite his limitations as a hitter. Pierre won the World Series with the Marlins, of course, and then was a part of one of their infamous purges after the 2005 season. What you may not know is that current star Ricky Nolasco came to Florida, along with a couple other players, from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Juan Pierre.
Pierre typifies a certain style of player - the small, scrappy, speedster who always gives you a tough at bat, even though he can't hit for power and isn't nearly as good a base stealer as you think he is.* That Pierre has lasted as long in the Majors as he has is partially due to skill, yes, but also because he has overvalued skills in spades: he hits for a decent average, even though he doesn't walk much or hit for any power, and he is fast, even though he's not an excellent base stealer. A career OPS+ of 85 (meaning he's about 15% below league average) shows a degree of usefulness, but almost 1,500 career games seems a bit much. Until you look at the picks before him like Choo Freeman, and you realize that Pierre is a veritable god by comparison.
* Pierre has led the league in stolen bases twice in his career. He has led the league in caught stealing five times.
Round 15, Pick 450 - RHP Mark DiFelice, 0.6 WAR
DiFelice pitched for five different organizations in the minors before making it to the show with the Brewers in 2008, at the age of 31. Last season he worked 51.2 innings, striking out 48 and walking only 15, leading to a 3.66 ERA. A shoulder injury has sidelined him for the entirety of 2010, and may potentially end his career. Unfortunately for the Brewers, he was one of their more reliable relief pitchers last season, and that is an area where they have been lacking so far this season.
Round 44, Pick 1314 - SS Alfredo Amezaga, 1.2 WAR
Most 44th round picks don't make it to the Majors, but Amezaga is a special case. After not signing with the Rockies in 1998, he was drafted by the Angels in 1999 in the 13th round. Nevertheless, he found his way to the Rockies briefly as a waiver claim in the winter of 2004, playing only 2 games before likewise being claimed by the Pirates off of waivers. With a career going nowhere as a backup infielder, Amezaga made it to the Florida Marlins in 2006, where he received regular playing time for the first time in his career. His numbers are far from spectacular, but Amezaga has been a regular for the Marlins since 2006, posting averages of .260, .263, and .264 in the last three seasons. Unfortunately, he doesn't really walk or hit for power (he has 12 home runs in his 544 career games played), so most of his value derives from defense. On the whole, Amezaga has had an unremarkable career, but a much better one than most 44th round, or even 14th round, picks.
1999
Round 1, Pick 16 - RHP Jason Jennings, 9.2 WAR
It's easy to forget how good Jason Jennings was in 2006, the year before he was traded for Taylor Buchholz, Jason Hirsh, and Willy Taveras. Of his 9.2 career WAR, 4.2 came in that season alone. Though he only went 9-13, Jennings posted an excellent 3.78 ERA, striking out 142 and walking 85 in 212 innings. He won, that season, the first ever 1-0 game in Coors Field history, against the San Diego Padres, and while he was probably somewhat lucky to have an ERA as low as he did, he nevertheless conjured a certain amount of hopeful expectation in the minds of Rockies fans everywhere desperate for an "ace."
After leaving Colorado, of course, Jennings arm fell apart, and he was awful with the Houston Astros in 2007 while watching his former team surge into the World Series. Like with Matt Holliday, a trade that was regarded skeptically at the time has definitely paid off for the Rockies in the long term, though in this case more because of how little Jennings has produced instead of how much the players received in return have produced.
Regardless of his successes and failures, Jennings signified a shift in the Rockies approach towards pitching. Along with Aaron Cook, Jennings was the poster-child of the hard-sinker, pitch-to-contact model that has become the mantra of the Rockies staff in recent years. Jennings was always in imperfect practitioner of this approach, probably because his control simply wasn't good enough, but he nevertheless was an important transition point.
Round 3, Pick 100 - C Josh Bard, 1.9 WAR
Unlike the '98 draft, the '99 draft didn't produce much for the Rockies, as Bard was the second best Major Leaguer to come out of the 49 rounds. Bard was, as mentioned, traded along with Jody Gerut for Jacob Cruz in 2001, and he has since been involved in two other trades as he has zipped around the league. This year he is a backup for the Seattle Mariners, but he has also played for the Nationals, the Padres, the Red Sox, and the Indians. In his best season, 2006, Bard hit .333 with 9 HR and a .404 OBP in 284 PAs. He would play even more in 2007, but hit fewer HRs, had a lower AVG, and a lower OBP. Since then, he's been mostly a part-timer, but has a reputation as an effective defender and an acceptable hitter for a catcher, meaning he may stick around for a few years more.
Round 12, Pick 370 - RHP Craig House, -0.2 WAR
House, born in Japan, bounced around in the minors for a few years after his Major League debut at the age of 22 in 2000. He struggled in 16 appearances in 2000, but an arm injury sidelined him and stunted his future development into a shutdown closer. The Rockies gave up on him in 2002, shipping him off to New York as a part of the massive trade that brought Todd Zeile and Benny Agbayani to the Rockies. He was released for the last time in 2005 after playing in six other minor league organizations, but never making it back to the Majors.
Round 28, Pick 850 - LHP Justin Hampson, 1.1 WAR
Currently working as a minor leaguer for the Oakland A's, Hampson appeared briefly for the Rockies in 2006, and was a regular reliever for the Padres in 2007 and 2008. Hampson has never shown exceptional ability, but his ERA in his career is 3.38 in 96 innings, certainly not shabby for a 28th round pick.
2000
Round 2, Pick 47 - RHP Jason Young, -1.2 WAR
Matt Harrington was the ill-fated first round pick by the Rockies in 2000. He refused to sign, was picked in the second round by the Padres in 2001, refused to sign again, and eventually never made it to the Majors despite being one of the most heralded prospects of his year.
Jason Young did sign with the Rockies, and was a part of a disastrous quartet of pitchers the Rockies picked in the first four rounds. I've been avoiding playing the "what if" game so far during these posts, but consider the following position players who were drafted in the first four rounds of 2000, all of whom the Rockies had a chance to pick and didn't:
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Kelly Johnson (now a 2B)
3B - Xavier Nady (now an OF)
OF - Grady Sizemore
OF - David DeJesus
C - Yadier Molina
Don't get me wrong, a lot of teams missed on these players. Remember in 1998 when every team in the whole MLB passed on Matt Holliday 13 times. But the Rockies, even in 2000, stuck stubbornly to their "pick pitchers first" mentality, which cost them opportunities at players like Sizemore and Utley. The above list doesn't include pitchers Adam Wainwright and Cliff Lee, who both went in the early rounds, as well.
Anyway, Jason Young was not a bad pick, per se, but his Major League career never took off. In 10 games - 5 starts - he posted a 9.71 ERA in 29.2 innings, thanks mainly to 11 home runs surrendered. That he was probably the best of the four pitchers the Rockies selected in the first four rounds just goes to show how hard this drafting thing is.
Round 4, Pick 107 - LHP Cory Vance, -0.1 WAR
Cory Vance pitched in 11 games, mostly in relief, for the Rockies in 2002 and 2003. His 5.74 ERA was better than Young's, but he gave up almost as many homers, and walked more than he struck out. His career was doomed to be a short one.
Round 5, Pick 137 - 1B Garrett Atkins, 10.9 WAR
While the Rockies dropped Matt Holliday and Jason Jennings at the exact right times, they held onto Atkins for one season too long. In 2008 Atkins had a career low .328 OBP, and was, overall, a below league average hitter for the first time since his rookie year. Of course, his 2009 was a disaster, and his poor defense at 3B was always troubling, but worth putting up with thanks to decent offensive production. Needless to say, Atkins has been terrible with the Orioles - playing against the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees all the time - this season.
Nevertheless, Atkins was a good Major League player for five seasons, giving the Rockies stability at a position they have often struggled to fill. He was a key contributor to the 2007 World Series team, and even garnered some MVP votes in his career-best year in 2006. Atkins, however, is also a case study in age curves. Peaking at 26, Atkins has collapsed rapidly, and will likely be out of Major League baseball within the next couple of seasons. While his rise and fall have been somewhat more extreme than most players, it is easy to forget that Atkins career arc is the norm, not the exception.
Round 6, Pick 167 - RHP Scott Dohmann, -0.1 WAR
Dohmann stuck around for 164 appearances in the Majors, despite never being particularly good. Indeed, he is the definition of "replacement," with a career WAR almost exactly at 0 despite over 170 innings pitched. The theory is that one could easily drop into triple A and find a dozen Scott Dohmans floating around, waiting for their chance in the Majors.
Round 10, Pick 287 - SS Clint Barmes, 6.2 WAR
Clint Barmes has never had an above league average season on offense, even as a rookie when he got off to a torrid start before injuring himself in a tagic deer-meat carrying accident. It's also easy to forget that Barmes's rookie year came at the game of 26, making him 31 now. As an everyday player, Clint's usefulness has always been as a defender, where he has become one of the better second basemen in the Majors. Add to that his ability to hit the longball, and he has been a passable every day player in the past few seasons for Colorado.
Age, however, knows no limits, and if it can claim Garrett Atkins as swiftly as it did, there's no reason to believe that Clint Barmes's march towards career lows in AVG, OBP, and SLG this season are anomalous. Add to that early-season defensive struggles, and it's beginning to look like Barmes belongs on the bench as a utility infielder, and not on the field as a starter. If only the Rockies had someone else who could play second base.
Anyway, as a pick this was an excellent one. Despite how easy it is to knock Clint's shortcomings, he has been a decent Major League player, and even produced a 2.3 WAR season in his prime. Indeed, though you wouldn't expect it, he has been a better player in his career than the Rockies 11th round pick in the same draft.
Round 11, Pick 317 - 1B Brad Hawpe, 2.7 WAR
I know what you're thinking, I'm not about to argue that Brad Hawpe has been a worse player in his career than Clint Barmes. That's unthinkable. But it's true. Hawpe may hit homers, and his career OBP may be a solid .376, but his defense is so unbelievably bad that his offense cannot save him. Where Barmes has been a poor hitter and excellent defender, Hawpe has been a good hitter and a truly, almost historically, atrocious fielder. In 2008, for example, Hawpe was 4.1 wins below replacement in the outfield. Not runs, wins. As in, Hawpe's defense, in 2008, cost the Rockies FOUR GAMES! Consider that most MVPs collect about 7 or 8 Wins in a season and you'll see how amazingly bad that is.
The reason, of course, is that Hawpe has played out of position for his whole career. Coors Field has a difficult enough outfield to navigate, so Hawpe's transition from first base - where he grew up playing - has been an especially cruel one. It's hard to fault Hawpe for his defensive shortcomings, since it is the Rockies who march him out to the outfield every day, but it would be silly to pretend that Hawpe's value in his career hasn't been significantly lessened by his misadventures in the vast, grassy pastures of the outfield.
Round 12, Pick 347 - RHP Sean Green, 0.5 WAR
Green has appeared this season for the Mets, and before that worked regularly in relief for New York and Seattle. On the whole, he has pitched 250 innings in 240 games, posting a 4.40 ERA. Nothing spectacular, but, again, a decent career for a 12th round pick.
Round 15, Pick 437 - RHP Justin Huisman, -0.2 WAR
Husiman made it to the Majors with the Royals in 2004, working 25 innings. He was, later, a "player to be named later" in a trade with the Astros.
Round 35, Pick 1037 - RHP Darren Clarke, 0.1 WAR
Darren Clarke was drafted by the Rockies in both 1999 and 2000, but didn't sign the first time. He made it to the Majors in 2007 for the proverbial "cup of coffee," pitching 1.1 innings in 2 games.
2001
Round 1 (supplemental), Pick 44 - SS Jayson Nix, 0.8 WAR
Everyone remembers the disastrous Mike Hampton signing the Rockies made before the 2001 season - a contract that the Rockies only recently stopped paying for - but we don't usually remember that signing Hampton also cost the Rockies their first round pick in 2001. The Mets, with that pick, selected future Major Leaguer Aaron Heilman.
The Rockies first pick was 44th overall in 2001, and Jayson Nix's career really has gone nowhere. Simply put, Jayson Nix can't hit in the Major Leagues. Thanks to the somewhat backwards Chicago White Sox Nix has now accrued 396 PAs in the Majors, but his batting average is .199 and his OBP is .290. Ugly. Add to that his high strikeout totals and his mediocre power and you don't really have the profile of an everyday player. Of course, the Rockies hoped and prayed that Nix would supplant Barmes at 2B, giving him the starting job in 2008 out of spring training, and taking it away by May.
Nix has picked up some value in his career thanks to solid defense, but he's been a less-than-inspiring first round pick, on the whole.
Round 7, Pick 214 - OF Cory Sullivan, -0.9 WAR
We've already talked about the Rockies love for light-hitting speedsters in center field. Cory Sullivan is the archetype. As a starter for two full seasons, Sullivan hit in the high .200s with no power and no plate discipline. What's more, he's never been much of a base stealer despite his theoretically good speed, swiping only 32 bases so far in his 6 year career. Currently with the Astros, Sullivan is "hitting" .176 in what may, realistically, be his final campaign.
2002
Round 1, Pick 9 - LHP Jeff Francis, 6.0 WAR
The infamous "Moneyball Draft" treated the Rockies fairly well. While they didn't acquire any stars, the number of Major League players that came out of the draft was much higher than either 2001 or 2003.
Francis, of course, is the best of the bunch, his career WAR suffering mainly from pitching hurt in 2008 and missing all of 2009. His 2006 and 2007 seasons netted 2.5 and 2.2 Wins, respectively, both solid if unspectacular. What's more, he's looking like he may be a useful pitcher again this season, having finally recovered from his arm troubles. While Francis will never be an All-Star, he's a decent middle-of-the-rotation arm with, moreover, the profile of a pitcher who is likely to age well. At only 29, Francis may be around Colorado for years to come, giving him ample chance to up his career WAR to 10 or 15.
Round 2, Pick 50 - RHP Micah Owings, 2.9 WAR
Ironically, 2.5 of Owings career Wins come from his offensive production, and not his pitching. Indeed, Owings has been a mediocre pitcher throughout his career with the Diamondbacks and Reds, but has a career .289 average with 9 homers as a hitter. He won't fool anyone into thinking he could be a regular in the field, but his production as a pitcher who can hit is not insignificant.
Owings never played in the Rockies system, even though he was a second round pick, because he refused to sign in 2002. He was later picked by the Cubs in 2004, where he also didn't sign, and then finally by the D-backs in 2005.
Round 4, Pick 111 - 3B Jeff Baker, 2.1 WAR
Baker never really got a chance to play regularly with the Rockies, serving as a backup from 2005 through 2008. He has still yet to show significant ability as a hitter or a fielder, but is good enough and versatile enough in the field to stick around as a backup and pinch hitter. The Rockies traded Baker to the Cubs for Alberto Alburquerque, a prospect pitching in, fittingly, AA this season.
Round 6, Pick 171 - OF Sean Barker, 0.0 WAR
Another "cup of coffee" player, Barker appeared in three games in 2007 for the Rockies, but did not get a hit. How frustrating is that?
Round 7, Pick 201 - OF Ryan Spilborghs, 1.0 WAR
Spilly, in addition to routinely having some of the ugliest facial hair in baseball, has been a solid backup outfielder for the Rockies since 2006. He is well liked in the clubhouse, sure, but is also a good enough hitter that he has so far been worth keeping around. Most seasons Spilly has been right around 0 WAR - a replacement level player - but his career year in 2007 (at the age of 27) was a 2.1 WAR year in a mere 97 games. His 2008 was better offensively, but he was stuck in center field too often for his own good.
Ryan Spilborghs also selects hilarious songs to stride to the plate to. Where most players pick something they like, or that is appropriately "epic," Spilly has used in recent years a song from Gwen Stefani, "Eye of the Tiger," and most recently "Tainted Love." The walkoff Grand Slam he hit against the Giants last August in extra innings was, in fact, preceded by "Eye of the Tiger." Which, frankly, is way more epic than even Larry Walker's many "Crazy Train" homers.
Round 8, Pick 231 - OF Jeff Salazar, -0.7 WAR
Now in the Orioles minor league system - and if you're not good enough to play for the Orioles, you're probably not good enough to play anywhere - Salazar has collected 348 PAs at the Major League level, but has never done enough to earn regular playing time.
Round 11, Pick 321 - 1B Ryan Shealy, 0.6 WAR
We already discussed Shealy. This was the year he was actually signed. The Rockies really did want him enough to pick him both before and after college.
Round 12, Pick 351 - RHP Mike Esposito, -0.1 WAR
Esposito started three games for the Rockies in 2005, losing two of them. He walked 9 and struck out 5 in 14.2 innings, which is a recipe for failure.
2003
Round 1, Pick 10 - 3B Ian Stewart, 1.6 WAR
Stewart is the only player from the Rockies 2003 draft to make the Majors, but he has so far been a pretty good one. Finally given the starting job in 2009, he's settling into everyday play this year, and while he has not yet posted a high batting average in his career, his patience and power make him a decent, if unexceptional hitter. Expect his career WAR to start climbing in the next few seasons, as he is still only 25, and should have another couple years of improvement left in him.
Wrap-Up
In some way these drafts were even less impressive for the Rockies than the 1992-1997 crop, but what is notable is not the skill of the players here but the volume. Much of the homegrown talent that carried the team in 2007 came from these drafts: Hawpe, Atkins, Holliday, Francis, and Spilborghs. Add to that the Rockies Latin American signings of Manny Corpas, Franklin Morales, and Ubaldo Jimenez and you have the core of what ended up being a World Series team.
Perhaps these six years, even more than the previous six, demonstrate how hard it is to draft effectively. The Rockies have, in fact, drafted and developed well compared to many teams, despite only a small handful - or in 2003, only one - of Major League players coming out of each draft. Perhaps more important than the draft for the Rockies has been how they have dealt their homegrown talent at the exact right time: Jennings for Taveras, Holliday for CarGo and Street, and so on.
Our final rundown of 2004 through 2010 (!) will come tomorrow. Of course, there will be fewer MLB players in those ranks, simply because some of the players who will make it from those years haven't made it yet. Players drafted out of High School, especially often take six or seven years to broach the Majors. Matt Holliday was drafted in 1998, after all. Who knows what Matt Holliday-caliber player was picked in 2005, and won't make an impact until 2013?
Yesterday we looked at the first six drafts of the Rockies history, which, with the not-inconsequential exception of Todd Helton, did little to boost the Major League club. Part two will take us into more recent territory. The volume of Major Leaguers - and especially Major Leaguers who have made an actual impact with the Rockies - is much higher than in the first few years of Rockies drafts, before they had a chance to really build their scouting department. Add to that the struggles of the big league club, which in turn netted higher picks, and you'll see more familiar names in today's post than in yesterday's.
Without further ado, onwards to 1998.
1998
Round 1, Pick 28 - RHP Matt Roney, -0.1 WAR
An inauspicious start to the day, Roney left the club as a Rule 5 pick between the 2002 and 2003 seasons, landing with the Detroit Tigers. The following season, the Tigers were unthinkably bad, at 43-119 (and they would have lost 120, if not for a 5-1 finish*). Roney worked mostly in relief, starting 11 games and appearing in 34 others. All things considered, he did alright, producing a 5.45 ERA, but he also walked more hitters than he struck out and, not surprisingly, finished with a 1-9 record. The truly remarkable thing, however, is that Roney, in what would be his only complete season in the big leagues, was realistically the Tigers' fourth best pitcher, behind "ace" Nate Cornejo and fellow relievers Chris Spurling and Jamie Walker. That you have probably never heard of any of those pitchers says a lot about why the Tigers lost 119 games in 2003.
* As for how bad they were, consider this: that 5-1 finish accounted for 12% of their wins for the entire year. For comparison's sake, consider that those six games accounted for about 4% of the schedule.
While we're at it, it's worth mentioning that Roney was joined by Adam Bernero and Ben Petrick - who you'll remember from yesterday's post - on one of baseball history's worst teams. The Rockies were producing Major Leaguers of a kind, anyway, but at least they were someone else's problem.
Round 1 (supplemental), Pick 36 - OF Choo Freeman, -1.5 WAR
Choo was something of a fan favorite in his three years with the Major League club. From 2004 to 2006 he was given a chance to break into the regular lineup, but never really managed to impress. His lack of power meant that he needed to hit for a high average, show good plate discipline, and employ his excellent speed to his advantage. He struggled, however, to do any of those things, stealing only six bases in thirteen attempts, and punching up a putrid .296 OBP in his 318 Major League PAs. Choo was one in a series of light-hitting center fielders that manned the cavernous alleys of Coors Field, joining the likes of Curtis Goodwin, Darryl Hamilton, and going further back, Alex Cole. One might also throw Willy Taveras, Cory Sullivan, and Dexter Fowler into that mix. Obviously the Rockies have believed that they need speed in the outfield - even at the expense of power - to be successful at Coors. Current center fielder Carlos Gonzalez, fortunately, provides both.
Round 2, Pick 60 - RHP Jermaine Van Buren, -0.6 WAR
Van Buren's 16 games came as a Cub and a Red Sock, after being released by the Rockies in 2003. He posted a 9.00 ERA in 19 innings.
Round 2, Pick 71 - OF Jody Gerut, 4.2 WAR
The second of four eventual Major League outfielders the Rockies picked in this draft, Gerut was a part of the trade that sent catcher Josh Bard to Cleveland for another speedy, light-hitting outfielder named Jacob Cruz. Since then, Gerut has become something of a journeyman, never living up to the potential displayed in his rookie season in 2003 when he hit .279 with 22 and a respectable .336 OBP, thanks largely to an ACL tear he suffered late in 2004. Gerut was out of the Majors by the end of 2005, but fought his way back and was a regular for the Padres in 2008. He is currently playing for - and struggling with - the Milwaukee Brewers, having been traded by the Padres for Tony Gwynn Jr last season.
Round 4, Pick 120 - RHP Luke Hudson, 1.4 WAR
Hudson enjoyed two full seasons and parts of a couple more at the big league level, pitching for the Reds and the Royals with limited success. A career 5.11 ERA in 243 innings is nothing spectacular, and probably had something to do with Hudson's low strikeout, high walk, and fairly high home run totals. A dangerous combination.
Round 5, Pick 150 - 1B Ryan Shealy, 0.6 WAR
Rockies fans probably remember Shealy as the one-time heir apparent to Todd Helton who never really got a chance to play. Eventually the club moved Ryan to Kansas City in the deal that brought Jeremy Affeldt to the roster. Given regular playing time, Shealy proved that his batting eye was, more or less, for real, but his vaunted power has never lived up to expectations, and he hasn't appeared in a Major League game since 2008. Deemed not good enough for the Royals, who start Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Guillen every day, there's little chance Shealy will play anywhere else.
Round 7, Pick 210 - 3B Matt Holliday, 21.9 WAR
You may be surprised to learn that Holliday, picked out of high school, went in the seventh round. There may be no better anecdotal evidence - at least in Rockies history - as to what a crap-shoot the draft is than Holliday's selection. Based on this draft, one would be tempted to say that the Rockies (and all of baseball) in 1998 thought that Choo Freeman was a better played than Matt Holliday. Yeah.
Anyway, you know the story from there. Holliday moved to the outfield from third base, debuted in Colorado in 2004, and promptly grew into some power to accompany his .300+ batting averages. In 2007 he hit a league-leading .340 and cracked 36 home runs en route to a second-place finish in the MVP voting and a World Series appearance for the Rockies. Showing tremendous shrewdness, the Rockies dealt Holliday after a sub-par (for him) 2008 season, getting in return Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street from the Oakland Athletics.
Last offseason Holliday signed a massive contract with the Cardinals that will keep him there past, frankly, the time when he will likely be a useful player for them. The Rockies, meanwhile, have both a decent if oft-injured closer and a budding young star in the outfield instead. Despite much hand-wringing at the time, Holliday not only gave the Rockies his best seasons, his departure brought in one of the franchise's current best players.
Round 13, Pick 390 - OF Juan Pierre, 11.9 WAR
The fourth of four Major League outfielders the Rockies picked in 1998 (and another light-hitting speedster), Pierre has had a solid career despite his limitations as a hitter. Pierre won the World Series with the Marlins, of course, and then was a part of one of their infamous purges after the 2005 season. What you may not know is that current star Ricky Nolasco came to Florida, along with a couple other players, from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Juan Pierre.
Pierre typifies a certain style of player - the small, scrappy, speedster who always gives you a tough at bat, even though he can't hit for power and isn't nearly as good a base stealer as you think he is.* That Pierre has lasted as long in the Majors as he has is partially due to skill, yes, but also because he has overvalued skills in spades: he hits for a decent average, even though he doesn't walk much or hit for any power, and he is fast, even though he's not an excellent base stealer. A career OPS+ of 85 (meaning he's about 15% below league average) shows a degree of usefulness, but almost 1,500 career games seems a bit much. Until you look at the picks before him like Choo Freeman, and you realize that Pierre is a veritable god by comparison.
* Pierre has led the league in stolen bases twice in his career. He has led the league in caught stealing five times.
Round 15, Pick 450 - RHP Mark DiFelice, 0.6 WAR
DiFelice pitched for five different organizations in the minors before making it to the show with the Brewers in 2008, at the age of 31. Last season he worked 51.2 innings, striking out 48 and walking only 15, leading to a 3.66 ERA. A shoulder injury has sidelined him for the entirety of 2010, and may potentially end his career. Unfortunately for the Brewers, he was one of their more reliable relief pitchers last season, and that is an area where they have been lacking so far this season.
Round 44, Pick 1314 - SS Alfredo Amezaga, 1.2 WAR
Most 44th round picks don't make it to the Majors, but Amezaga is a special case. After not signing with the Rockies in 1998, he was drafted by the Angels in 1999 in the 13th round. Nevertheless, he found his way to the Rockies briefly as a waiver claim in the winter of 2004, playing only 2 games before likewise being claimed by the Pirates off of waivers. With a career going nowhere as a backup infielder, Amezaga made it to the Florida Marlins in 2006, where he received regular playing time for the first time in his career. His numbers are far from spectacular, but Amezaga has been a regular for the Marlins since 2006, posting averages of .260, .263, and .264 in the last three seasons. Unfortunately, he doesn't really walk or hit for power (he has 12 home runs in his 544 career games played), so most of his value derives from defense. On the whole, Amezaga has had an unremarkable career, but a much better one than most 44th round, or even 14th round, picks.
1999
Round 1, Pick 16 - RHP Jason Jennings, 9.2 WAR
It's easy to forget how good Jason Jennings was in 2006, the year before he was traded for Taylor Buchholz, Jason Hirsh, and Willy Taveras. Of his 9.2 career WAR, 4.2 came in that season alone. Though he only went 9-13, Jennings posted an excellent 3.78 ERA, striking out 142 and walking 85 in 212 innings. He won, that season, the first ever 1-0 game in Coors Field history, against the San Diego Padres, and while he was probably somewhat lucky to have an ERA as low as he did, he nevertheless conjured a certain amount of hopeful expectation in the minds of Rockies fans everywhere desperate for an "ace."
After leaving Colorado, of course, Jennings arm fell apart, and he was awful with the Houston Astros in 2007 while watching his former team surge into the World Series. Like with Matt Holliday, a trade that was regarded skeptically at the time has definitely paid off for the Rockies in the long term, though in this case more because of how little Jennings has produced instead of how much the players received in return have produced.
Regardless of his successes and failures, Jennings signified a shift in the Rockies approach towards pitching. Along with Aaron Cook, Jennings was the poster-child of the hard-sinker, pitch-to-contact model that has become the mantra of the Rockies staff in recent years. Jennings was always in imperfect practitioner of this approach, probably because his control simply wasn't good enough, but he nevertheless was an important transition point.
Round 3, Pick 100 - C Josh Bard, 1.9 WAR
Unlike the '98 draft, the '99 draft didn't produce much for the Rockies, as Bard was the second best Major Leaguer to come out of the 49 rounds. Bard was, as mentioned, traded along with Jody Gerut for Jacob Cruz in 2001, and he has since been involved in two other trades as he has zipped around the league. This year he is a backup for the Seattle Mariners, but he has also played for the Nationals, the Padres, the Red Sox, and the Indians. In his best season, 2006, Bard hit .333 with 9 HR and a .404 OBP in 284 PAs. He would play even more in 2007, but hit fewer HRs, had a lower AVG, and a lower OBP. Since then, he's been mostly a part-timer, but has a reputation as an effective defender and an acceptable hitter for a catcher, meaning he may stick around for a few years more.
Round 12, Pick 370 - RHP Craig House, -0.2 WAR
House, born in Japan, bounced around in the minors for a few years after his Major League debut at the age of 22 in 2000. He struggled in 16 appearances in 2000, but an arm injury sidelined him and stunted his future development into a shutdown closer. The Rockies gave up on him in 2002, shipping him off to New York as a part of the massive trade that brought Todd Zeile and Benny Agbayani to the Rockies. He was released for the last time in 2005 after playing in six other minor league organizations, but never making it back to the Majors.
Round 28, Pick 850 - LHP Justin Hampson, 1.1 WAR
Currently working as a minor leaguer for the Oakland A's, Hampson appeared briefly for the Rockies in 2006, and was a regular reliever for the Padres in 2007 and 2008. Hampson has never shown exceptional ability, but his ERA in his career is 3.38 in 96 innings, certainly not shabby for a 28th round pick.
2000
Round 2, Pick 47 - RHP Jason Young, -1.2 WAR
Matt Harrington was the ill-fated first round pick by the Rockies in 2000. He refused to sign, was picked in the second round by the Padres in 2001, refused to sign again, and eventually never made it to the Majors despite being one of the most heralded prospects of his year.
Jason Young did sign with the Rockies, and was a part of a disastrous quartet of pitchers the Rockies picked in the first four rounds. I've been avoiding playing the "what if" game so far during these posts, but consider the following position players who were drafted in the first four rounds of 2000, all of whom the Rockies had a chance to pick and didn't:
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Kelly Johnson (now a 2B)
3B - Xavier Nady (now an OF)
OF - Grady Sizemore
OF - David DeJesus
C - Yadier Molina
Don't get me wrong, a lot of teams missed on these players. Remember in 1998 when every team in the whole MLB passed on Matt Holliday 13 times. But the Rockies, even in 2000, stuck stubbornly to their "pick pitchers first" mentality, which cost them opportunities at players like Sizemore and Utley. The above list doesn't include pitchers Adam Wainwright and Cliff Lee, who both went in the early rounds, as well.
Anyway, Jason Young was not a bad pick, per se, but his Major League career never took off. In 10 games - 5 starts - he posted a 9.71 ERA in 29.2 innings, thanks mainly to 11 home runs surrendered. That he was probably the best of the four pitchers the Rockies selected in the first four rounds just goes to show how hard this drafting thing is.
Round 4, Pick 107 - LHP Cory Vance, -0.1 WAR
Cory Vance pitched in 11 games, mostly in relief, for the Rockies in 2002 and 2003. His 5.74 ERA was better than Young's, but he gave up almost as many homers, and walked more than he struck out. His career was doomed to be a short one.
Round 5, Pick 137 - 1B Garrett Atkins, 10.9 WAR
While the Rockies dropped Matt Holliday and Jason Jennings at the exact right times, they held onto Atkins for one season too long. In 2008 Atkins had a career low .328 OBP, and was, overall, a below league average hitter for the first time since his rookie year. Of course, his 2009 was a disaster, and his poor defense at 3B was always troubling, but worth putting up with thanks to decent offensive production. Needless to say, Atkins has been terrible with the Orioles - playing against the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees all the time - this season.
Nevertheless, Atkins was a good Major League player for five seasons, giving the Rockies stability at a position they have often struggled to fill. He was a key contributor to the 2007 World Series team, and even garnered some MVP votes in his career-best year in 2006. Atkins, however, is also a case study in age curves. Peaking at 26, Atkins has collapsed rapidly, and will likely be out of Major League baseball within the next couple of seasons. While his rise and fall have been somewhat more extreme than most players, it is easy to forget that Atkins career arc is the norm, not the exception.
Round 6, Pick 167 - RHP Scott Dohmann, -0.1 WAR
Dohmann stuck around for 164 appearances in the Majors, despite never being particularly good. Indeed, he is the definition of "replacement," with a career WAR almost exactly at 0 despite over 170 innings pitched. The theory is that one could easily drop into triple A and find a dozen Scott Dohmans floating around, waiting for their chance in the Majors.
Round 10, Pick 287 - SS Clint Barmes, 6.2 WAR
Clint Barmes has never had an above league average season on offense, even as a rookie when he got off to a torrid start before injuring himself in a tagic deer-meat carrying accident. It's also easy to forget that Barmes's rookie year came at the game of 26, making him 31 now. As an everyday player, Clint's usefulness has always been as a defender, where he has become one of the better second basemen in the Majors. Add to that his ability to hit the longball, and he has been a passable every day player in the past few seasons for Colorado.
Age, however, knows no limits, and if it can claim Garrett Atkins as swiftly as it did, there's no reason to believe that Clint Barmes's march towards career lows in AVG, OBP, and SLG this season are anomalous. Add to that early-season defensive struggles, and it's beginning to look like Barmes belongs on the bench as a utility infielder, and not on the field as a starter. If only the Rockies had someone else who could play second base.
Anyway, as a pick this was an excellent one. Despite how easy it is to knock Clint's shortcomings, he has been a decent Major League player, and even produced a 2.3 WAR season in his prime. Indeed, though you wouldn't expect it, he has been a better player in his career than the Rockies 11th round pick in the same draft.
Round 11, Pick 317 - 1B Brad Hawpe, 2.7 WAR
I know what you're thinking, I'm not about to argue that Brad Hawpe has been a worse player in his career than Clint Barmes. That's unthinkable. But it's true. Hawpe may hit homers, and his career OBP may be a solid .376, but his defense is so unbelievably bad that his offense cannot save him. Where Barmes has been a poor hitter and excellent defender, Hawpe has been a good hitter and a truly, almost historically, atrocious fielder. In 2008, for example, Hawpe was 4.1 wins below replacement in the outfield. Not runs, wins. As in, Hawpe's defense, in 2008, cost the Rockies FOUR GAMES! Consider that most MVPs collect about 7 or 8 Wins in a season and you'll see how amazingly bad that is.
The reason, of course, is that Hawpe has played out of position for his whole career. Coors Field has a difficult enough outfield to navigate, so Hawpe's transition from first base - where he grew up playing - has been an especially cruel one. It's hard to fault Hawpe for his defensive shortcomings, since it is the Rockies who march him out to the outfield every day, but it would be silly to pretend that Hawpe's value in his career hasn't been significantly lessened by his misadventures in the vast, grassy pastures of the outfield.
Round 12, Pick 347 - RHP Sean Green, 0.5 WAR
Green has appeared this season for the Mets, and before that worked regularly in relief for New York and Seattle. On the whole, he has pitched 250 innings in 240 games, posting a 4.40 ERA. Nothing spectacular, but, again, a decent career for a 12th round pick.
Round 15, Pick 437 - RHP Justin Huisman, -0.2 WAR
Husiman made it to the Majors with the Royals in 2004, working 25 innings. He was, later, a "player to be named later" in a trade with the Astros.
Round 35, Pick 1037 - RHP Darren Clarke, 0.1 WAR
Darren Clarke was drafted by the Rockies in both 1999 and 2000, but didn't sign the first time. He made it to the Majors in 2007 for the proverbial "cup of coffee," pitching 1.1 innings in 2 games.
2001
Round 1 (supplemental), Pick 44 - SS Jayson Nix, 0.8 WAR
Everyone remembers the disastrous Mike Hampton signing the Rockies made before the 2001 season - a contract that the Rockies only recently stopped paying for - but we don't usually remember that signing Hampton also cost the Rockies their first round pick in 2001. The Mets, with that pick, selected future Major Leaguer Aaron Heilman.
The Rockies first pick was 44th overall in 2001, and Jayson Nix's career really has gone nowhere. Simply put, Jayson Nix can't hit in the Major Leagues. Thanks to the somewhat backwards Chicago White Sox Nix has now accrued 396 PAs in the Majors, but his batting average is .199 and his OBP is .290. Ugly. Add to that his high strikeout totals and his mediocre power and you don't really have the profile of an everyday player. Of course, the Rockies hoped and prayed that Nix would supplant Barmes at 2B, giving him the starting job in 2008 out of spring training, and taking it away by May.
Nix has picked up some value in his career thanks to solid defense, but he's been a less-than-inspiring first round pick, on the whole.
Round 7, Pick 214 - OF Cory Sullivan, -0.9 WAR
We've already talked about the Rockies love for light-hitting speedsters in center field. Cory Sullivan is the archetype. As a starter for two full seasons, Sullivan hit in the high .200s with no power and no plate discipline. What's more, he's never been much of a base stealer despite his theoretically good speed, swiping only 32 bases so far in his 6 year career. Currently with the Astros, Sullivan is "hitting" .176 in what may, realistically, be his final campaign.
2002
Round 1, Pick 9 - LHP Jeff Francis, 6.0 WAR
The infamous "Moneyball Draft" treated the Rockies fairly well. While they didn't acquire any stars, the number of Major League players that came out of the draft was much higher than either 2001 or 2003.
Francis, of course, is the best of the bunch, his career WAR suffering mainly from pitching hurt in 2008 and missing all of 2009. His 2006 and 2007 seasons netted 2.5 and 2.2 Wins, respectively, both solid if unspectacular. What's more, he's looking like he may be a useful pitcher again this season, having finally recovered from his arm troubles. While Francis will never be an All-Star, he's a decent middle-of-the-rotation arm with, moreover, the profile of a pitcher who is likely to age well. At only 29, Francis may be around Colorado for years to come, giving him ample chance to up his career WAR to 10 or 15.
Round 2, Pick 50 - RHP Micah Owings, 2.9 WAR
Ironically, 2.5 of Owings career Wins come from his offensive production, and not his pitching. Indeed, Owings has been a mediocre pitcher throughout his career with the Diamondbacks and Reds, but has a career .289 average with 9 homers as a hitter. He won't fool anyone into thinking he could be a regular in the field, but his production as a pitcher who can hit is not insignificant.
Owings never played in the Rockies system, even though he was a second round pick, because he refused to sign in 2002. He was later picked by the Cubs in 2004, where he also didn't sign, and then finally by the D-backs in 2005.
Round 4, Pick 111 - 3B Jeff Baker, 2.1 WAR
Baker never really got a chance to play regularly with the Rockies, serving as a backup from 2005 through 2008. He has still yet to show significant ability as a hitter or a fielder, but is good enough and versatile enough in the field to stick around as a backup and pinch hitter. The Rockies traded Baker to the Cubs for Alberto Alburquerque, a prospect pitching in, fittingly, AA this season.
Round 6, Pick 171 - OF Sean Barker, 0.0 WAR
Another "cup of coffee" player, Barker appeared in three games in 2007 for the Rockies, but did not get a hit. How frustrating is that?
Round 7, Pick 201 - OF Ryan Spilborghs, 1.0 WAR
Spilly, in addition to routinely having some of the ugliest facial hair in baseball, has been a solid backup outfielder for the Rockies since 2006. He is well liked in the clubhouse, sure, but is also a good enough hitter that he has so far been worth keeping around. Most seasons Spilly has been right around 0 WAR - a replacement level player - but his career year in 2007 (at the age of 27) was a 2.1 WAR year in a mere 97 games. His 2008 was better offensively, but he was stuck in center field too often for his own good.
Ryan Spilborghs also selects hilarious songs to stride to the plate to. Where most players pick something they like, or that is appropriately "epic," Spilly has used in recent years a song from Gwen Stefani, "Eye of the Tiger," and most recently "Tainted Love." The walkoff Grand Slam he hit against the Giants last August in extra innings was, in fact, preceded by "Eye of the Tiger." Which, frankly, is way more epic than even Larry Walker's many "Crazy Train" homers.
Round 8, Pick 231 - OF Jeff Salazar, -0.7 WAR
Now in the Orioles minor league system - and if you're not good enough to play for the Orioles, you're probably not good enough to play anywhere - Salazar has collected 348 PAs at the Major League level, but has never done enough to earn regular playing time.
Round 11, Pick 321 - 1B Ryan Shealy, 0.6 WAR
We already discussed Shealy. This was the year he was actually signed. The Rockies really did want him enough to pick him both before and after college.
Round 12, Pick 351 - RHP Mike Esposito, -0.1 WAR
Esposito started three games for the Rockies in 2005, losing two of them. He walked 9 and struck out 5 in 14.2 innings, which is a recipe for failure.
2003
Round 1, Pick 10 - 3B Ian Stewart, 1.6 WAR
Stewart is the only player from the Rockies 2003 draft to make the Majors, but he has so far been a pretty good one. Finally given the starting job in 2009, he's settling into everyday play this year, and while he has not yet posted a high batting average in his career, his patience and power make him a decent, if unexceptional hitter. Expect his career WAR to start climbing in the next few seasons, as he is still only 25, and should have another couple years of improvement left in him.
Wrap-Up
In some way these drafts were even less impressive for the Rockies than the 1992-1997 crop, but what is notable is not the skill of the players here but the volume. Much of the homegrown talent that carried the team in 2007 came from these drafts: Hawpe, Atkins, Holliday, Francis, and Spilborghs. Add to that the Rockies Latin American signings of Manny Corpas, Franklin Morales, and Ubaldo Jimenez and you have the core of what ended up being a World Series team.
Perhaps these six years, even more than the previous six, demonstrate how hard it is to draft effectively. The Rockies have, in fact, drafted and developed well compared to many teams, despite only a small handful - or in 2003, only one - of Major League players coming out of each draft. Perhaps more important than the draft for the Rockies has been how they have dealt their homegrown talent at the exact right time: Jennings for Taveras, Holliday for CarGo and Street, and so on.
Our final rundown of 2004 through 2010 (!) will come tomorrow. Of course, there will be fewer MLB players in those ranks, simply because some of the players who will make it from those years haven't made it yet. Players drafted out of High School, especially often take six or seven years to broach the Majors. Matt Holliday was drafted in 1998, after all. Who knows what Matt Holliday-caliber player was picked in 2005, and won't make an impact until 2013?
Monday, June 7, 2010
Colorado Rockies Draft History, Part One: 1992-1997
Tip of the hat to baseball-reference, where all of my info for this series of posts is coming from.
The first round of the MLB amateur draft is today. In the past few years, the event has gotten more publicity than it used to, but it has always taken a back seat to the drafts in the NFL and NBA. The main reason is that, where in basketball and football top picks make an immediate impact on the professional team, in baseball the best players often spend years in the minor leagues. Today's draft will pay off in 2013 and beyond, not in this year's pennant race.
Anyway, since today is the draft, I wanted to look back at the Rockies draft history since their inception in 1992 (I know, the Major League team started in '93, but the Rockies first draft was in '92). Much of the Rockies top-tier talent in recent years comes from Venezuela, the Dominican, and Panama, of course, which are not a part of a draft limited to Canadian and United Statesian players. But the team has had some success with its draft picks as well, though maybe not as much as you'd think.
So here's the first part of my year-by-year, blow-by-blow review. I'll be using primarily WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to assess players, just because it's an easy, one-size-fits all approximation of a players' career value, and because it is on a fairly intuitive scale (1 WAR is, basically, 1 Win). I won't debate the merits or drawbacks of WAR here, rather, I'm using it to get a sense. Anyway, here we go.
1992
Round 1, Pick 27 - RHP John Burke, -0.3 WAR
Burke pitched for the Rockies briefly - in 28 games - in 1996 and 1997, but was never really any good. He punched up a 6.75 ERA in those two years, and didn't last long after that.
Round 2, Pick 65 - RHP Mark Thompson, -0.3 WAR
Thompson, like Burke, was picked out of college, but he lasted much longer in the Majors. His career WAR of -0.3 is misleading, because he did have a couple of decent seasons. Reaching the Majors at 23, in 1994, Thompson had his best season as a 25-year-old in 1996, finishing 9-11 with a 5.30 ERA in the early, high-scoring days of Coors Field. Despite the high ERA, he was actually right around league average that season, but injuries derailed his career, and he never made more than 6 starts in a season after that, finishing his career as a reliever with St. Louis in 2000.
Round 3, Pick 95 - RHP Roger Bailey, 4.4 WAR
The Rockies were pitching-happy in their early drafts. Bailey was followed in the fourth round by fourth pitcher, Lloyd Peever (who never reached the majors). The Rockies didn't pick a position player until the 151st pick of the draft.
Bailey had the best career of any pitcher the Rockies selected in this draft, believe it or not. His 4.4 WAR is not impressive, but it's not too bad over a 92 game career. He put up a well above-average season at 26 in 1997, going 9-10 with a 4.29 ERA. Unfortunately, a car accident that off-season ended his career prematurely.
Round 7, Pick 207 - SS Jason Bates, -2.6 WAR
Jason Bates never played for anyone except the Rockies, and his rookie year in 1995 was also his best. At the age of 24 he netted 116 games played and 368 PAs, hitting .267 with 8 HRs. Thereafter he was a utility infielder until 1998, but increasingly struggled as a hitter and was done as a Major Leaguer after a .189 average in his final season.
Round 10, Pick 291 - RHP Garvin Alston, -0.1 WAR
Alston appeared in 6 games for the Rockies in 1996, but, like many players, didn't last.
Round 11, Pick 319 - SS Craig Counsell, 18.4 WAR
Counsell is easily the best player the Rockies selected in the 1992 draft. The book hasn't even closed on his career yet, as he is still plying his trade for the Milwaukee Brewers even now, in 2010. Counsell has won the World Series twice, with the Marlins in 1997 and the Diamondbacks in 2001, and has been a generally competent, if unimpressive, semi-regular infielder throughout his career. In over 5,000 career PAs, Counsell has a .258 average, a .344 OBP, and a .350 SLG.
Round 14, Pick 403 - RHP Juan Acevedo, 3.2 WAR
Acevedo was never a great pitcher, but he was good enough to stick around from 1995 until 2003, bouncing from the Rockies to the Mets to the Cardinals to the Brewers, back to the Rockies, on to the Marlins, then on to the Tigers, Yankees, and finally, the Blue Jays. Phew. Definition of a journeyman. But it is certainly remarkable for a 14th rounder to throw 570 innings in the Majors, which Acevedo did in his career, punching up a respectable 4.33 ERA.
Round 17, Pick 487 - OF Angel Echevarria, -1.0 WAR
A career backup, Echevarria was never really given a chance to shine. In his best season, as a 28-year-old in 1999, he hit .293 with 11 homers in only 191 ABs before the Rockies sent him out of hitter-friendly Coors Field. As a Blue Jay, he struggled mightily, and was out of the game by 2003.
Round 25, Pick 711 - 2B Quinton McCracken, -2.6 WAR
For a 25th round pick, McCracken had a remarkable career. He lasted from 1995 until 2006, playing in 999 games and stealing 89 bases. As a speedy, backup outfielder (not as a 2B, where he was drafted), McCracken was able to stick around for longer than you would expect, but he never was able to hit for enough power to play regularly. Nevertheless, his best season, at 31 in 2002 - with the Arizona Diamondbacks - was well above league average, as he hit .309 with a .367 OBP and a .458 SLG.
Round 28, Pick 795 - C Mark Strittmatter, -0.1 WAR
Strittmatter played only 4 games in the Majors, but he is and has been the Rockies bullpen catcher for as long as I can remember.
1993
Round 1, Pick 28 - RHP Jamey Wright, 6.0 WAR
Wright has had a long and mediocre career. Currently he's a reliever for the Cleveland Indians, having left the rotation for good with Texas in 2007. In his 1,700+ inning career Wright has a not-so-great 5.03 ERA, and has walked almost as many batters as he has struck out. Wright was picked out of high school, but made the Majors in 1996 at only 21-years-old, perhaps rushed by a Rockies franchise desperate for pitching help. Wright never really fit at Coors Field, which is hardly a surprise because he hasn't really fit anywhere else either. Nevertheless, Wright has stuck in the Majors, especially because he's not nearly as dangerous to his own team in the pen as he was as a starter.
Round 2, Pick 70 - RHP Bryan Rekar, 0.7 WAR
Rekar had a 655 inning career that ended in 2002, probably most remarkable because he was picked by the Devil Rays in the 1998 expansion draft. His 5.62 ERA was unimpressive, as was his 25-49 W-L record.
Round 7, Pick 212 - RHP John Thomson, 12.4 WAR
Missing here, again, is rounds 3 through 5, all pitchers, none of whom made the Majors. Thomson was the best player from this draft for the Rockies, lasting in MLB until 2007. Injury troubles kept Thomson from being as good as he could have been, but he manager to put up a 4.68 ERA and strikeout over twice as many batters as he walked. His 63-85 record has more to do with the middling to poor teams he played with than his own shortcomings. He easily could have been a better-than-.500, middle-of-the-rotation starter, as evidenced by his 14-8, 3.72 ERA year in 2004 with the Braves.
Round 10, Pick 296 - OF Edgard Clemente, -1.8 WAR
Clemente had a short career, hitting only .249 with an awful .276 OBP in 270 PAs over three seasons, from 1998-2000.
Round 13, Pick 380 - OF Derrick Gibson, 0.4 WAR
Gibson played in 17 games over two years with the Rockies, obviously not impressing enough to warrant a shot anywhere else.
Round 30, Pick 856 - RHP Mark Brownson, 0.3 WAR
Brownson pitched in 11 games over three seasons, but his best known for his debut. Against the Astros he pitched a complete game shutout, surrendering only 4 hits. Unfortunately, he never captured that lightening again.
Round 40, Pick 1136 - OF Terry Jones, 0.5 WAR
Jones played mostly with the Expos from 1998 to 2001 as a backup outfielder. He may not have had an impressive career, but making the Majors at all after being a 40th round pick is exceptionally rare, let alone sticking around to play in 227 games.
1994
Round 1, Pick 7 - LHP Doug Million
Million didn't make the Majors, but I list him because his reason for not making it has nothing to do with talent. Million died of a severe asthma attack in 1997 while in the minor leagues. What his career would have been is unclear, but he would have undoubtedly made the Majors if not for his tragic death.
Round 6, Pick 154 - RHP Luther Hackman, -2.3 WAR
Hackman had a couple passable years as a reliever with the Cardinals and Padres, but was never exceptional. Hackman was part of the trade that sent Daryl Kile to and brought longtime closer Jose Jimenez from the Cardinals to the Rockies.
Round 12, Pick 322 - RHP Mike Saipe, -0.3 WAR
Saipe appeared in only 2 games in 1998 for the Rockies.
Round 49, Pick 1326 - RHP Bart Miadich, -0.1 WAR
Miadich did not sign after being picked in the 49th round, eventually joining the Red Sox organization before being traded to the Angels, where he made his 12 career appearances.
Round 51, Pick 1366 - 2B Brandon Knight, -0.9 WAR
After not signing with the Rockies, Knight was drafted by the Rangers in the 14th round in 1995, and eventually made the majors as a pitcher for the Yankees. As his -0.9 WAR attests, Knight was no good (he had a 8.62 ERA) in 15 games played over 3 seasons. Strangely, those seasons were 2001, 2002, and 2008. Sometimes players stick around a long time in the minors.
1995
Round 1, Pick 8 - 1B Todd Helton, 57.5 WAR
Easily the best player in Rockies history, and the first ever non-pitcher the Rockies selected in the first round, Helton's career OBP of .426 is among the best baseball has ever seen. It remains to be seen whether Helton will be a good enough player in the next three or four seasons to cement his borderline case for the Hall of Fame, but regardless he'll go down as the first truly great player the Rockies ever picked, developed, and then watched play through a long and successful career.
Round 2, Pick 38 - C Ben Petrick, 0.5 WAR
Petrick's career was cut short by Parkinson's disease. As he struggled to establish himself as a young catcher in the, called to the Majors at 22, Petrick had barely settled in when he had to retire in 2003. Where Helton's pick is has been one of the happiest stories the Rockies have enjoyed, Petrick's - along with Million's - is one of the saddest.
Round 11, Pick 291 - RHP Scott Randall, -0.5 WAR
Randall made the Majors as a Cincinnati Red in 2003, pitching in only 15 games and struggling with a 6.51 ERA. With 25 strikeouts against 11 walks, Randall maybe deserved a longer look, but he never got it.
Round 23, Pick 627 - RHP David Lee, 1.0 WAR
Lee pitched in 96 games over 5 seasons. In his rookie year in 1999, he punched up a 3.67 ERA over 49 innings, showing some promise. Likewise with the Padres in 2001, he had a 3.70 ERA in 48.2 innings, but Lee missed 2002, and was out of the game by 2004. Wikipedia tells me he now coaches little league in Pennsylvania.
1996
Round 1, Pick 21 - RHP Jake Westbrook, 11.5 WAR
The Rockies traded Westbrook to the Expos as part of the deal that brought them Mike Lansing, and the Expos traded him to the Yankees as part of their deal for Hideki Irabu. Finally, the Yankees moved Westbrook, along with Zach Day and Ricky Ledee, to the Cleveland Indians - with whom he has spent his whole career - for David Justice. Westbrook is still pitching for Cleveland, after missing 2009 due to injury. In 2004 he was an All-Star on the way to a 3.38 ERA and a 14-9 record.
Round 3, Pick 86 - RHP Shawn Chacon, 4.4 WAR
Oh Shawn Chacon. He was the first Rockies pitcher to make the All-Star game, but an injury prevented him from appearing. After that injury, he was never the same. The Rockies moved Chacon to the bullpen in 2004, the year after his All-Star berth, and he collected 35 saves, but had an atrocious 7.11 ERA. He was eventually traded to the Yankees, but it is now clear that his injury did irreparable harm, and he never lived up to the promise he showed as a young starter for the Rockies.
Round 11, Pick 326 - LHP Tim Christman, 0.0 WAR
Christman appeared in only one game for the Rockies in 2001, hence the 0.0 WAR.
Round 38, Pick 1136 - RHP Adam Bernero, -2.6 WAR
Bernero was picked in 1994 by the White Sox, but didn't sign. He also didn't sign at this pick, eventually joining the Tigers as an amateur free agent in 1999. He was never all that impressive as a Tiger, and was traded to the Rockies - who apparently really, really wanted him - for Ben Petrick before Ben's Parkinson's was diagnosed. As a Rockie, Bernero was an unimpressive reliever. For his career, he went 11-27 with a 5.91 ERA in 376 innings.
1997
Round 2, Pick 70 - RHP Aaron Cook, 13.1 WAR
The Rockies first round pick in 1997 was Mark Mangum, a pitcher who never made the Majors. Cook has turned out to be the much better pick, working over 1,150 innings in his still-running Rockies career. Cook has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but he was the vanguard of the new style of Rockies pitcher which has led to so much success in the late 00's. Cook throws a hard sinker, pitching to contact and keeping the ball on the ground. The result is a lot of hits on balls that find holes, but by keeping walks and home run totals low, Cook has been an effective Major Leaguer, winning as many as 16 games in 2008 and posting a respectable 4.36 ERA for his career.
The most famous Aaron Cook story is probably his brush with death while pitching in 2004. Suffering from pulmonary embolism, Cook felt dizziness and numbness on while pitching in a mid-season start. He was rushed to the hospital, where the blood clots were removed. Cook missed a full year dealing with the condition.
Round 3, Pick 102 - 1B Todd Sears, 0.0 WAR
Sears played very briefly in the Majors for the Minnesota Twins after the Rockies traded him for Butch Husky and Todd Walker in 2000. Walker was a solid, if unremarkable, second baseman for the team for a couple seasons.
Round 4, Pick 132 - SS Chone Figgins, 21.1 WAR
The proverbial one that got away. Figgins has had one the best careers of any Rockies draft pick, mostly for the Anaheim (or Los Angeles or California) Angels. The Rockies traded Figgins for Kimera Bartee in July of 2001. And who can forget Kimera Bartee?
Figgins has never been a power hitter, but his career .361 OBP, his excellent defense all over the infield, and his exceptional speed (292 career stolen bases against 99 times caught stealing) have made him an All-Star, and have garnered him a handful of MVP votes throughout his career.
Round 5, Pick 162 - RHP Justin Miller, 0.7 WAR
The lowest pick from the 1997 draft that made the Majors from the Rockies, Miller has appeared in four games for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season, bringing his career total to 201 games since 2002.
Wrap-Up
If you're wondering why the Rockies were so bad from 2000 until 2007, look no further than their first 6 drafts. The only 10 or more WAR players the Rockies picked were Helton, Figgins, Thomson, Counsell, Cook, and Westbrook. Only Figgins and Helton have wracked up more than 20 WAR, and Figgins did all of that work with another team.
The number of players who made the Majors from these drafts - or, rather, the number who didn't - is nothing surprising. Most teams have about the same level of success as the Rockies did in terms of overall numbers, but the number of high-round pitchers that didn't work out for the Rockies is somewhat damning. Some of that had nothing to do with player development, of course - injuries, car accidents, and unexpected deaths are hard to predict when you draft - but the Rockies never really learned from their success in picking Helton in the first round. He was the only first-round position player for the franchise in from '92 to '97, and was also their best pick.
Tune in next time for 1998 through 2003!
The first round of the MLB amateur draft is today. In the past few years, the event has gotten more publicity than it used to, but it has always taken a back seat to the drafts in the NFL and NBA. The main reason is that, where in basketball and football top picks make an immediate impact on the professional team, in baseball the best players often spend years in the minor leagues. Today's draft will pay off in 2013 and beyond, not in this year's pennant race.
Anyway, since today is the draft, I wanted to look back at the Rockies draft history since their inception in 1992 (I know, the Major League team started in '93, but the Rockies first draft was in '92). Much of the Rockies top-tier talent in recent years comes from Venezuela, the Dominican, and Panama, of course, which are not a part of a draft limited to Canadian and United Statesian players. But the team has had some success with its draft picks as well, though maybe not as much as you'd think.
So here's the first part of my year-by-year, blow-by-blow review. I'll be using primarily WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to assess players, just because it's an easy, one-size-fits all approximation of a players' career value, and because it is on a fairly intuitive scale (1 WAR is, basically, 1 Win). I won't debate the merits or drawbacks of WAR here, rather, I'm using it to get a sense. Anyway, here we go.
1992
Round 1, Pick 27 - RHP John Burke, -0.3 WAR
Burke pitched for the Rockies briefly - in 28 games - in 1996 and 1997, but was never really any good. He punched up a 6.75 ERA in those two years, and didn't last long after that.
Round 2, Pick 65 - RHP Mark Thompson, -0.3 WAR
Thompson, like Burke, was picked out of college, but he lasted much longer in the Majors. His career WAR of -0.3 is misleading, because he did have a couple of decent seasons. Reaching the Majors at 23, in 1994, Thompson had his best season as a 25-year-old in 1996, finishing 9-11 with a 5.30 ERA in the early, high-scoring days of Coors Field. Despite the high ERA, he was actually right around league average that season, but injuries derailed his career, and he never made more than 6 starts in a season after that, finishing his career as a reliever with St. Louis in 2000.
Round 3, Pick 95 - RHP Roger Bailey, 4.4 WAR
The Rockies were pitching-happy in their early drafts. Bailey was followed in the fourth round by fourth pitcher, Lloyd Peever (who never reached the majors). The Rockies didn't pick a position player until the 151st pick of the draft.
Bailey had the best career of any pitcher the Rockies selected in this draft, believe it or not. His 4.4 WAR is not impressive, but it's not too bad over a 92 game career. He put up a well above-average season at 26 in 1997, going 9-10 with a 4.29 ERA. Unfortunately, a car accident that off-season ended his career prematurely.
Round 7, Pick 207 - SS Jason Bates, -2.6 WAR
Jason Bates never played for anyone except the Rockies, and his rookie year in 1995 was also his best. At the age of 24 he netted 116 games played and 368 PAs, hitting .267 with 8 HRs. Thereafter he was a utility infielder until 1998, but increasingly struggled as a hitter and was done as a Major Leaguer after a .189 average in his final season.
Round 10, Pick 291 - RHP Garvin Alston, -0.1 WAR
Alston appeared in 6 games for the Rockies in 1996, but, like many players, didn't last.
Round 11, Pick 319 - SS Craig Counsell, 18.4 WAR
Counsell is easily the best player the Rockies selected in the 1992 draft. The book hasn't even closed on his career yet, as he is still plying his trade for the Milwaukee Brewers even now, in 2010. Counsell has won the World Series twice, with the Marlins in 1997 and the Diamondbacks in 2001, and has been a generally competent, if unimpressive, semi-regular infielder throughout his career. In over 5,000 career PAs, Counsell has a .258 average, a .344 OBP, and a .350 SLG.
Round 14, Pick 403 - RHP Juan Acevedo, 3.2 WAR
Acevedo was never a great pitcher, but he was good enough to stick around from 1995 until 2003, bouncing from the Rockies to the Mets to the Cardinals to the Brewers, back to the Rockies, on to the Marlins, then on to the Tigers, Yankees, and finally, the Blue Jays. Phew. Definition of a journeyman. But it is certainly remarkable for a 14th rounder to throw 570 innings in the Majors, which Acevedo did in his career, punching up a respectable 4.33 ERA.
Round 17, Pick 487 - OF Angel Echevarria, -1.0 WAR
A career backup, Echevarria was never really given a chance to shine. In his best season, as a 28-year-old in 1999, he hit .293 with 11 homers in only 191 ABs before the Rockies sent him out of hitter-friendly Coors Field. As a Blue Jay, he struggled mightily, and was out of the game by 2003.
Round 25, Pick 711 - 2B Quinton McCracken, -2.6 WAR
For a 25th round pick, McCracken had a remarkable career. He lasted from 1995 until 2006, playing in 999 games and stealing 89 bases. As a speedy, backup outfielder (not as a 2B, where he was drafted), McCracken was able to stick around for longer than you would expect, but he never was able to hit for enough power to play regularly. Nevertheless, his best season, at 31 in 2002 - with the Arizona Diamondbacks - was well above league average, as he hit .309 with a .367 OBP and a .458 SLG.
Round 28, Pick 795 - C Mark Strittmatter, -0.1 WAR
Strittmatter played only 4 games in the Majors, but he is and has been the Rockies bullpen catcher for as long as I can remember.
1993
Round 1, Pick 28 - RHP Jamey Wright, 6.0 WAR
Wright has had a long and mediocre career. Currently he's a reliever for the Cleveland Indians, having left the rotation for good with Texas in 2007. In his 1,700+ inning career Wright has a not-so-great 5.03 ERA, and has walked almost as many batters as he has struck out. Wright was picked out of high school, but made the Majors in 1996 at only 21-years-old, perhaps rushed by a Rockies franchise desperate for pitching help. Wright never really fit at Coors Field, which is hardly a surprise because he hasn't really fit anywhere else either. Nevertheless, Wright has stuck in the Majors, especially because he's not nearly as dangerous to his own team in the pen as he was as a starter.
Round 2, Pick 70 - RHP Bryan Rekar, 0.7 WAR
Rekar had a 655 inning career that ended in 2002, probably most remarkable because he was picked by the Devil Rays in the 1998 expansion draft. His 5.62 ERA was unimpressive, as was his 25-49 W-L record.
Round 7, Pick 212 - RHP John Thomson, 12.4 WAR
Missing here, again, is rounds 3 through 5, all pitchers, none of whom made the Majors. Thomson was the best player from this draft for the Rockies, lasting in MLB until 2007. Injury troubles kept Thomson from being as good as he could have been, but he manager to put up a 4.68 ERA and strikeout over twice as many batters as he walked. His 63-85 record has more to do with the middling to poor teams he played with than his own shortcomings. He easily could have been a better-than-.500, middle-of-the-rotation starter, as evidenced by his 14-8, 3.72 ERA year in 2004 with the Braves.
Round 10, Pick 296 - OF Edgard Clemente, -1.8 WAR
Clemente had a short career, hitting only .249 with an awful .276 OBP in 270 PAs over three seasons, from 1998-2000.
Round 13, Pick 380 - OF Derrick Gibson, 0.4 WAR
Gibson played in 17 games over two years with the Rockies, obviously not impressing enough to warrant a shot anywhere else.
Round 30, Pick 856 - RHP Mark Brownson, 0.3 WAR
Brownson pitched in 11 games over three seasons, but his best known for his debut. Against the Astros he pitched a complete game shutout, surrendering only 4 hits. Unfortunately, he never captured that lightening again.
Round 40, Pick 1136 - OF Terry Jones, 0.5 WAR
Jones played mostly with the Expos from 1998 to 2001 as a backup outfielder. He may not have had an impressive career, but making the Majors at all after being a 40th round pick is exceptionally rare, let alone sticking around to play in 227 games.
1994
Round 1, Pick 7 - LHP Doug Million
Million didn't make the Majors, but I list him because his reason for not making it has nothing to do with talent. Million died of a severe asthma attack in 1997 while in the minor leagues. What his career would have been is unclear, but he would have undoubtedly made the Majors if not for his tragic death.
Round 6, Pick 154 - RHP Luther Hackman, -2.3 WAR
Hackman had a couple passable years as a reliever with the Cardinals and Padres, but was never exceptional. Hackman was part of the trade that sent Daryl Kile to and brought longtime closer Jose Jimenez from the Cardinals to the Rockies.
Round 12, Pick 322 - RHP Mike Saipe, -0.3 WAR
Saipe appeared in only 2 games in 1998 for the Rockies.
Round 49, Pick 1326 - RHP Bart Miadich, -0.1 WAR
Miadich did not sign after being picked in the 49th round, eventually joining the Red Sox organization before being traded to the Angels, where he made his 12 career appearances.
Round 51, Pick 1366 - 2B Brandon Knight, -0.9 WAR
After not signing with the Rockies, Knight was drafted by the Rangers in the 14th round in 1995, and eventually made the majors as a pitcher for the Yankees. As his -0.9 WAR attests, Knight was no good (he had a 8.62 ERA) in 15 games played over 3 seasons. Strangely, those seasons were 2001, 2002, and 2008. Sometimes players stick around a long time in the minors.
1995
Round 1, Pick 8 - 1B Todd Helton, 57.5 WAR
Easily the best player in Rockies history, and the first ever non-pitcher the Rockies selected in the first round, Helton's career OBP of .426 is among the best baseball has ever seen. It remains to be seen whether Helton will be a good enough player in the next three or four seasons to cement his borderline case for the Hall of Fame, but regardless he'll go down as the first truly great player the Rockies ever picked, developed, and then watched play through a long and successful career.
Round 2, Pick 38 - C Ben Petrick, 0.5 WAR
Petrick's career was cut short by Parkinson's disease. As he struggled to establish himself as a young catcher in the, called to the Majors at 22, Petrick had barely settled in when he had to retire in 2003. Where Helton's pick is has been one of the happiest stories the Rockies have enjoyed, Petrick's - along with Million's - is one of the saddest.
Round 11, Pick 291 - RHP Scott Randall, -0.5 WAR
Randall made the Majors as a Cincinnati Red in 2003, pitching in only 15 games and struggling with a 6.51 ERA. With 25 strikeouts against 11 walks, Randall maybe deserved a longer look, but he never got it.
Round 23, Pick 627 - RHP David Lee, 1.0 WAR
Lee pitched in 96 games over 5 seasons. In his rookie year in 1999, he punched up a 3.67 ERA over 49 innings, showing some promise. Likewise with the Padres in 2001, he had a 3.70 ERA in 48.2 innings, but Lee missed 2002, and was out of the game by 2004. Wikipedia tells me he now coaches little league in Pennsylvania.
1996
Round 1, Pick 21 - RHP Jake Westbrook, 11.5 WAR
The Rockies traded Westbrook to the Expos as part of the deal that brought them Mike Lansing, and the Expos traded him to the Yankees as part of their deal for Hideki Irabu. Finally, the Yankees moved Westbrook, along with Zach Day and Ricky Ledee, to the Cleveland Indians - with whom he has spent his whole career - for David Justice. Westbrook is still pitching for Cleveland, after missing 2009 due to injury. In 2004 he was an All-Star on the way to a 3.38 ERA and a 14-9 record.
Round 3, Pick 86 - RHP Shawn Chacon, 4.4 WAR
Oh Shawn Chacon. He was the first Rockies pitcher to make the All-Star game, but an injury prevented him from appearing. After that injury, he was never the same. The Rockies moved Chacon to the bullpen in 2004, the year after his All-Star berth, and he collected 35 saves, but had an atrocious 7.11 ERA. He was eventually traded to the Yankees, but it is now clear that his injury did irreparable harm, and he never lived up to the promise he showed as a young starter for the Rockies.
Round 11, Pick 326 - LHP Tim Christman, 0.0 WAR
Christman appeared in only one game for the Rockies in 2001, hence the 0.0 WAR.
Round 38, Pick 1136 - RHP Adam Bernero, -2.6 WAR
Bernero was picked in 1994 by the White Sox, but didn't sign. He also didn't sign at this pick, eventually joining the Tigers as an amateur free agent in 1999. He was never all that impressive as a Tiger, and was traded to the Rockies - who apparently really, really wanted him - for Ben Petrick before Ben's Parkinson's was diagnosed. As a Rockie, Bernero was an unimpressive reliever. For his career, he went 11-27 with a 5.91 ERA in 376 innings.
1997
Round 2, Pick 70 - RHP Aaron Cook, 13.1 WAR
The Rockies first round pick in 1997 was Mark Mangum, a pitcher who never made the Majors. Cook has turned out to be the much better pick, working over 1,150 innings in his still-running Rockies career. Cook has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but he was the vanguard of the new style of Rockies pitcher which has led to so much success in the late 00's. Cook throws a hard sinker, pitching to contact and keeping the ball on the ground. The result is a lot of hits on balls that find holes, but by keeping walks and home run totals low, Cook has been an effective Major Leaguer, winning as many as 16 games in 2008 and posting a respectable 4.36 ERA for his career.
The most famous Aaron Cook story is probably his brush with death while pitching in 2004. Suffering from pulmonary embolism, Cook felt dizziness and numbness on while pitching in a mid-season start. He was rushed to the hospital, where the blood clots were removed. Cook missed a full year dealing with the condition.
Round 3, Pick 102 - 1B Todd Sears, 0.0 WAR
Sears played very briefly in the Majors for the Minnesota Twins after the Rockies traded him for Butch Husky and Todd Walker in 2000. Walker was a solid, if unremarkable, second baseman for the team for a couple seasons.
Round 4, Pick 132 - SS Chone Figgins, 21.1 WAR
The proverbial one that got away. Figgins has had one the best careers of any Rockies draft pick, mostly for the Anaheim (or Los Angeles or California) Angels. The Rockies traded Figgins for Kimera Bartee in July of 2001. And who can forget Kimera Bartee?
Figgins has never been a power hitter, but his career .361 OBP, his excellent defense all over the infield, and his exceptional speed (292 career stolen bases against 99 times caught stealing) have made him an All-Star, and have garnered him a handful of MVP votes throughout his career.
Round 5, Pick 162 - RHP Justin Miller, 0.7 WAR
The lowest pick from the 1997 draft that made the Majors from the Rockies, Miller has appeared in four games for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season, bringing his career total to 201 games since 2002.
Wrap-Up
If you're wondering why the Rockies were so bad from 2000 until 2007, look no further than their first 6 drafts. The only 10 or more WAR players the Rockies picked were Helton, Figgins, Thomson, Counsell, Cook, and Westbrook. Only Figgins and Helton have wracked up more than 20 WAR, and Figgins did all of that work with another team.
The number of players who made the Majors from these drafts - or, rather, the number who didn't - is nothing surprising. Most teams have about the same level of success as the Rockies did in terms of overall numbers, but the number of high-round pitchers that didn't work out for the Rockies is somewhat damning. Some of that had nothing to do with player development, of course - injuries, car accidents, and unexpected deaths are hard to predict when you draft - but the Rockies never really learned from their success in picking Helton in the first round. He was the only first-round position player for the franchise in from '92 to '97, and was also their best pick.
Tune in next time for 1998 through 2003!
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Is It Luck?
There is perhaps no more polarizing argument in the baseball statistics world than the argument over "clutch." On the one hand, there's disagreement about what clutch even means, whether a batter up with the bases loaded in the 5th inning of a tie game is in as clutch a situation as a batter up in the ninth inning with two outs, his team down by three runs. The latter is a save situation, of course, and making an out ends the game. But there's a much better chance of actually changing the outcome of the game with the bases loaded in the 5th inning of a tie game. A double, for example, will likely give you a three run lead, where a double in the 9th will put a runner on second, still with two outs and down by three.
On the other hand, there's great disagreement about whether certain players can raise their game to perform better in clutch situations. Is it not the case, for example, that Derek Jeter simply plays better with his team down by a run in the 9th inning? Doesn't he become a better hitter? Likewise - and this is the other side of clutch - doesn't Alex Rodriguez suddenly forget how to hit home runs in the same situation, and turn into a puddle of self-doubt and failure?
The tricky thing, here, is trying to tell the difference between players who perform better in the clutch and players who perform better, period. Of course you want Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter up in the 9th inning with the game on the line, not necessarily because they are clutch, but simply because they are good hitters. The real question of clutch is not how well players perform in high leverage situations, but how much better or worse they perform in those situations relative to how they perform in normal situations.
Fortunately, Fangraphs keeps track of clutch. Their resolution of the first question - what counts as clutch - is based upon the very statistics that they pioneered: Win Probability Added (WPA) and Leverage Index (LI). Basically, for each and every major league game, Fangraphs keeps track of game situation and calculates the odds each team has of winning based on score, inning, outs, and runners on base. From there, they extrapolate the importance of a given situation. Intuitively, a high leverage situation is like the one I described at the outset: bases loaded in the 5th inning of a tie game. That's high leverage because the outcome of the next at bat will have a tremendous influence on the odds of each team to win the game. A strikeout will be huge for the pitching team, while a walk or a hit will give the batting team a run and the lead (and, again intuitively, the team currently with the lead is almost always favored to win the game).
Anyway, the point here is not to dive into WPA or LI, but rather to talk a little bit about clutch and the Colorado Rockies. As in years past, the Rockies are off to an awesome start pitching this season, but can't seem to hit to save their lives. That their defense has been suspect as well has helped to lead the team to a disappointing early-season record of 19-19. Not the end of the world, but .500 isn't about to catapult anyone into the playoffs, and playing .500 ball so far means the Rockies have to play way better than .500 the rest of the way to earn their first ever division title (or at least their first ever back-to-back playoff berths).
What ails the Rockies lineup, however, is not totally clear. While they have lacked star-power this year, what with Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki forgetting how to hit home runs, Miguel Olivo has been a pleasant surprise (at least so far), Carlos Gonzalez has been excellent, and Seth Smith might finally be working his way into the everyday lineup. The Rockies don't have the talent to have a top-flight offense, but they should be competent.
Except they can't hit in the clutch.
Whether clutch is a skill or not, the numbers are striking. The Rockies currently rank 28th out of 30 MLB teams in clutch hitting this season. That is, the Rockies perform significantly worse in high leverage situations than in normal ones, so much so that only two other teams (the Cubs and Brewers, incidentally) have been worse so far in 2010.
It is early in 2010, but what disturbs me is where the Rockies stand looking backwards to 2003, Clint Hurdle's first full season:
2009 - 27th
2008 - 23rd
2007 - 5th
2006 - 30th
2005 - 28th
2004 - 24th
2003 - 25th
Of course, 2007 was the year the Rockies made the World Series after an improbable run in September and October, and it stands out as an outlier in this list. What jumps out to me, though, is that the Rockies are really the only team routinely this low on the clutch list at Fangraphs. What are they doing wrong? Or is it just luck?
Any regular watcher of the Rockies over the last 10 years will confirm anecdotally what Fangraphs has in numbers: the Rockies routinely fail to produce in key situations. Back-to-back strikeouts with a runner on third and nobody out has been something of a theme for this organization. Again, is this an organizational problem? Is it a hitting coach problem? A manager problem? A personnel problem? Does it have something to do with Coors Field? Or is it just luck?
Obviously in 2009 the Rockies were fine without being a good team in high leverage situations, and Troy Tulowitzki - who has struggled to produce at his normal level in the clutch throughout his career - is still a fine player despite often failing in high leverage situations. There's also no reason to believe that Tulo, or the Rockies in general, will continue to struggle producing when it counts. And yet, as a fan, the trend is disturbing, and as a human being, I'm inclined to attribute the pattern to something.
On the other hand, there's great disagreement about whether certain players can raise their game to perform better in clutch situations. Is it not the case, for example, that Derek Jeter simply plays better with his team down by a run in the 9th inning? Doesn't he become a better hitter? Likewise - and this is the other side of clutch - doesn't Alex Rodriguez suddenly forget how to hit home runs in the same situation, and turn into a puddle of self-doubt and failure?
The tricky thing, here, is trying to tell the difference between players who perform better in the clutch and players who perform better, period. Of course you want Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter up in the 9th inning with the game on the line, not necessarily because they are clutch, but simply because they are good hitters. The real question of clutch is not how well players perform in high leverage situations, but how much better or worse they perform in those situations relative to how they perform in normal situations.
Fortunately, Fangraphs keeps track of clutch. Their resolution of the first question - what counts as clutch - is based upon the very statistics that they pioneered: Win Probability Added (WPA) and Leverage Index (LI). Basically, for each and every major league game, Fangraphs keeps track of game situation and calculates the odds each team has of winning based on score, inning, outs, and runners on base. From there, they extrapolate the importance of a given situation. Intuitively, a high leverage situation is like the one I described at the outset: bases loaded in the 5th inning of a tie game. That's high leverage because the outcome of the next at bat will have a tremendous influence on the odds of each team to win the game. A strikeout will be huge for the pitching team, while a walk or a hit will give the batting team a run and the lead (and, again intuitively, the team currently with the lead is almost always favored to win the game).
Anyway, the point here is not to dive into WPA or LI, but rather to talk a little bit about clutch and the Colorado Rockies. As in years past, the Rockies are off to an awesome start pitching this season, but can't seem to hit to save their lives. That their defense has been suspect as well has helped to lead the team to a disappointing early-season record of 19-19. Not the end of the world, but .500 isn't about to catapult anyone into the playoffs, and playing .500 ball so far means the Rockies have to play way better than .500 the rest of the way to earn their first ever division title (or at least their first ever back-to-back playoff berths).
What ails the Rockies lineup, however, is not totally clear. While they have lacked star-power this year, what with Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki forgetting how to hit home runs, Miguel Olivo has been a pleasant surprise (at least so far), Carlos Gonzalez has been excellent, and Seth Smith might finally be working his way into the everyday lineup. The Rockies don't have the talent to have a top-flight offense, but they should be competent.
Except they can't hit in the clutch.
Whether clutch is a skill or not, the numbers are striking. The Rockies currently rank 28th out of 30 MLB teams in clutch hitting this season. That is, the Rockies perform significantly worse in high leverage situations than in normal ones, so much so that only two other teams (the Cubs and Brewers, incidentally) have been worse so far in 2010.
It is early in 2010, but what disturbs me is where the Rockies stand looking backwards to 2003, Clint Hurdle's first full season:
2009 - 27th
2008 - 23rd
2007 - 5th
2006 - 30th
2005 - 28th
2004 - 24th
2003 - 25th
Of course, 2007 was the year the Rockies made the World Series after an improbable run in September and October, and it stands out as an outlier in this list. What jumps out to me, though, is that the Rockies are really the only team routinely this low on the clutch list at Fangraphs. What are they doing wrong? Or is it just luck?
Any regular watcher of the Rockies over the last 10 years will confirm anecdotally what Fangraphs has in numbers: the Rockies routinely fail to produce in key situations. Back-to-back strikeouts with a runner on third and nobody out has been something of a theme for this organization. Again, is this an organizational problem? Is it a hitting coach problem? A manager problem? A personnel problem? Does it have something to do with Coors Field? Or is it just luck?
Obviously in 2009 the Rockies were fine without being a good team in high leverage situations, and Troy Tulowitzki - who has struggled to produce at his normal level in the clutch throughout his career - is still a fine player despite often failing in high leverage situations. There's also no reason to believe that Tulo, or the Rockies in general, will continue to struggle producing when it counts. And yet, as a fan, the trend is disturbing, and as a human being, I'm inclined to attribute the pattern to something.
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